2016 NFL Preview: AFC South

For part four of the 2016 NFL Preview I’ll take a look inside one the league’s worst divisions traditionally, that may finally be on the rise. Ever since Peyton Manning left this division, they haven’t produced a true contender while often generating some cellar-dwellers.

The Indianapolis Colts came closest to contending in 2014 when Andrew Luck led a high-flying offense to the AFC Championship game before getting dismantled by the New England Patriots 45-7. All four teams in the division have young quarterbacks that they are confident in, and all have reasons to thing the future will be bright. But what about the present?

 

Tennessee Titans 2015 (3-13)

2016 Prediction (4-12) 4th Place AFC South

Marcus Mariota looked solid in his rookie season after being drafted second overall in 2015. Unfortunately for him, he was the only bright spot on a very bad football team. They’ve made some upgrades to the talent level on offense, but there are too many holes on this team to see major improvement this season.

The biggest curiosity was the team’s decisions to trade for DeMarco Murray and then use their second round pick on Alabama running back Derrick Henry. While a strong running game is important, head coach Mike Mularkey has made it clear that they are going to transition to being a power running team.

Not only is that style of offense outdated in today’s NFL, but Mariota won a Heisman Trophy in college running a wide-open spread offense at Oregon. Why a coach would try to change the playing style of his young quarterback—instead of tailoring his offense to Mariota’s skill set—is beyond me, but it doesn’t seem like the best strategy.

With that said, if the preseason is any indication, the Titans will have a ferocious rushing attack with Murray and Henry keeping each other fresh and splitting the work load. The problem with this team is defense, as they gave up the sixth most points in the league last season. They haven’t done enough to upgrade their defense in the offseason, and there are bound to be more growing pains for Mariota as he tries to learn a completely new offense, so it will be another year in the cellar for the Titans.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars 2015 (5-11)

2016 Prediction: 7-9 3rd place AFC South

The Jaguars have found their franchise quarterback in Blake Bortles who exploded for 35 touchdown passes and almost 4,500 yards through the air last season. His decision-making needs to improve, as he still chucked up 18 interceptions, but it was a very impressive campaign for his first full season as a starter.

He has three great weapons in wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns and tight end Julius Thomas. Both Hurns and Robinson are entering their third season in the league, and both eclipsed 1,000 yards last year. As they continue to mature, they could prove to be one of the most dynamic duos at wide receiver in the league. Robinson is poised for a break out year as he looked positively dominant last season, hauling in 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Defensively the team spent big on defensive tackle Malik Jackson from the Denver Broncos and free safety Tashaun Gipson from the Cleveland Browns. The improvements should bring this team a couple more wins, but they are still a young team with some holes in the offensive line and defensive secondary, and will need a few years before they look like playoff team.

 

Indianapolis Colts 2015 (8-8)

2016 Prediction: (9-7) 2nd Place AFC South

The Colts floundered last year as Andrew Luck battled injuries and backup Matt Hasslebeck had to step in. Though, the team can hardly blame all their struggles on Luck’s injury. Even when he did play, his completion percentage was just 55.3% and he threw 12 interceptions in seven games.

The Colts have been one of the most mismanaged franchises in the league over the past four years. They hit the football lottery by landing Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft, but have failed to surround him with real talent on either side of the football. They haven’t been able to protect him with a good offensive line or provide him with any kind of running game, forcing him to throw the ball 40 times per game.

The defense has been an embarrassment finishing 26th in the league last season. Once again, the team hasn’t done much to improve their weaknesses in the offseason, and they figure to struggle in all the same areas. While they managed to make the playoffs in the past despite their deficiencies, their division has gotten much tougher, and they aren’t guaranteed six easy games per season any more. Luck will win games with his arm throwing to a decent receiving core of T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Philip Dorsett, but it won’t be enough to make the playoffs this year.

 

Houston Texans 2015 (9-7)

2016 Prediction: 10-6 1st Place AFC South

The Houston Texans managed to eek out a division title in 2015 despite rolling out four mediocre quarterbacks throughout the season in Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden. It’s quite a feat to make the playoffs with any one of those guys, never mind combining all four of them. So they went out and solved the quarterback problem by throwing an enormous contract at free agent Brock Osweiler, who looked solid in eight games as Denver’s starting quarterback last season.

His favorite new target will be DeAndre Hopkins who had a monster year in 2015 despite the sub-par quarterbacks he was working with. He grabbed 111 balls for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Those are staggering numbers considering the team managed just 3,833 yards through the air. He’s a bona fide superstar that can make any quarterback look good, so he is sure to have another great year with Osweiler looking his way.

The Texans also added running back Lamar Miller who finally finds himself on a team that likes to run the ball. He was an elite running back on a Miami Dolphins team that seemed allergic to handing the ball off, so he’s bound to be a top-five rusher on the 2016 Texans.

Defensively Houston should be strong once again, led by JJ Watt. Though he’s been injured for all of training camp, he’s back on the practice field, and a freak of nature like Watt won’t take too long to shake the rust off. Jadeveon Clowney will look to stay healthy for the first time in his career and finally show that he can make an impact at the NFL level. Even if he can’t, the Texans strong secondary of Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and Quintin Demps will make throwing the ball against Houston an unenviable task. All of the pieces are finally in place for the Texans to make a real run in a relatively weak AFC.

The South

It’s time for part three of the NFL season preview with a look at the south divisions from each conference.

NFC South

This is by far the hardest division in the NFL to predict right now. Last year the Carolina Panthers won the division and went to the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record one year after winning the division with a 12-4 record over the 11-5 Saints. The Atlanta Falcons were the top seed in the conference in 2012 with a 13-3 record before falling to 4-12 the following season despite a nearly identical roster. The Buccaneers were the worst team in the NFL last season, which gave them the first pick in the draft and a promising young quarterback in Jameis Winston. They may have the best roster on paper in the whole division. So who’s going to win this division this season? Who knows.

4. Carolina Panthers (2014 record: 7-8-1, won division)

This team wasn’t very good last year but managed to squeeze into the playoffs with a losing record in a terrible division. This offseason, they’ve only gotten worse. They’re top receiver last season, and only real threat on offense, Kelvin Benjamin, went down in training camp with a torn ACL and won’t play all season.

Cam Newton is a solid NFL quarterback, but he has absolutely nothing to work with on offense. They’re top receiver is either Tedd Ginn Jr. or Jarrett Boykin, neither of whom would be higher than a No. 3 receiver on any other team in the division. Their running backs, Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart, are old and past their primes.

This team will still have one of the best defenses in the league, anchored by the best line-backing duo in football, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis and defensive end Charles Johnson. However, it’s hard to imagine this offense scoring more than 14 points a game. My prediction: 5-11, miss playoffs.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2014 record: 2-14)

The Bucs, while horrible last year, have built a scary good offense around rookie QB Jameis Winston. Winston will have two massive receiving options in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, both of whom are 6’5”. Winston loved throwing to Kelvin Benjamin at Florida State, who also stands 6’5” tall. He can hand it off to a healthy Doug Martin, who looks at least in preseason like he’s back to prove that his monster rookie season was no fluke. Combine all that with Winston’s ability to make big plays in big moments, and this offense is going to be exciting to watch.

The defense still has a lot of holes in it, and that’s the reason I’m keeping the Bucs near the bottom of the division, but it really wouldn’t surprise me if this team managed to leapfrog closer to the top of the division. My prediction: 8-8, miss playoffs.

2. Atlanta Falcons (2014 record 6-10)

It’s been two seasons now since the Falcons topped the NFC, and in both seasons people expected this team to be better. Maybe I’m being naïve, but I again expect this team to be better. Matt Ryan is one of the best QBs in the league and he’s throwing to Julio Jones and Roddy White, a brilliant tandem of receivers. The team hopes that rookie running back Tevin Coleman can be a solid number one guy, but a weak offensive line will probably keep their running game from flourishing once again.

The defense isn’t great, but the addition of new head coach Dan Quinn, the former defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks should help bolster that unit. If the defense can improve, and Matt Ryan can continue his success with Jones and White, they should be a pretty good football team. My Prediction: 9-7, miss playoffs.

1. New Orleans Saints (2014 record: 7-9)

The Saints also underachieved last season and are due for a bounce back year. They obviously lost Drew Brees’ top receiving option in Jimmy Graham, but the trade helped them strengthen a weak offensive line. What they lose in Graham they are very likely to gain in the running game. They brought in CJ Spiller from Buffalo to be paired with Mark Ingram at running back. Spiller is an unbelievably quick back with great hands and elusiveness while Ingram can pound the ball between the tackles and get the tough yards. There might not be a better running back tandem in the NFL.

Defensively they got a lot stronger with the additions of Brandon Browner and Dannell Ellerbe, as well as Jairus Byrd from a year ago. There’s no doubt they will be the class of this division. My prediction: 11-5, win division.

AFC South

And now we move to the most boring division in football, and arguably the worst.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2014 record: 3-13)

Blake Bortles might be a good NFL quarterback some day, but we won’t find out until the Jaguars can find a way to protect him. It would also help if the team found some weapons for him. Adding Julius Thomas at tight end is a start, but it’s nowhere near enough to pull this team out of the cellar. They’re simply just a very bad football team. My prediction: 2-14.

3. Tennessee Titans (2014 record: 2-14)

This is another bad football team, with holes all over the roster. They hope they’ve found their franchise QB in rookie Marcus Mariota, but his lack of experience running an NFL style offense will make his learning curve a bit tougher. He’s still very accurate as a passer and can make plays with his feet, but he doesn’t have much to work with in terms of talent around him or protecting him on the offensive line.

They will have a solid tight end combination of Delanie Walker and Anthony Fasano, but the running game doesn’t look too strong. The defense has no stars on it, and they’ll probably give up a lot of points. My prediction: 5-11.

2. Houston Texans (2014 record: 9-7, missed playoffs)

This team is just a quarterback away from being very, very good. Unfortunately, with Brian Hoyer currently their top option and Ryan Mallet not far behind, they won’t find a good quarterback this season. Arian Foster’s health is always a concern and the team lost Andre Johnson. This will be a very anemic offense.

The defense, however, has the potential to be the very best in the NFL. JJ Watt is the best player in football, end of discussion. No one does more for his team. They’ll also add Vince Wilfork and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney to their defensive line, and man is that a terrifying front three. Linebacker Brian Cushing will also return from injury, and preseason has shown that he hasn’t lost a step at all and will return to being one of the best linebackers in football. This defense is mean, and it’ll be tough to put up more than a few points on these guys. My prediction: 9-7, miss playoffs.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2014 record: 11-5, won division)

The Colts are easily the best team in this division, but they need to find a way to not get blown out in the playoffs by the Patriots. They bolstered an already potent offense even further this offseason by adding Andre Johnson and Frank Gore. This team will be a threat to score 40 points every game.

However, their defense is still incredibly soft. For a team that has exited the playoffs each of the last two seasons in blowout losses to the Patriots, they haven’t responded appropriately. They’ve watched New England running backs rush for 13 touchdowns in their last three meetings, and haven’t done anything to make the defense stronger. My prediction: 12-4, win division.