Jets Week

The New York Jets and the New England Patriots meet on Sunday with first place in the AFC East on the line. Man, it’s been a long time since I’ve been able to say that. In the latter half of Rex Ryan’s tenure with the Jets, the rivalry faded as his teams got worse and worse. However, at 4-1 this year with Todd Bowles running the show, the Jets look like a legitimate playoff team in the AFC.

Aside from the quarterback position, the Jets have a really solid roster all the way around. The addition of Brandon Marshall has boosted the passing game and the returns of Antonio Cromartie and Darelle Revis have made the defense formidable once again. Before I give them too much credit, however, I must mention that their wins are against the Redskins, Dolphins, Browns and Colts, losing to the 3-3 Eagles. The Colts are the only respectable team in that bunch, but in week two they looked particularly bad.

The biggest concern for the Patriots defensively is their ability to bottle up Chris Ivory. Ivory is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and gashed the Redskins for 146 yards on 20 carries last week. The Pats are 22nd in the league in run defense, despite the fact that most teams are playing from behind and throwing for most of the second half. We haven’t seen a lot of Malcolm Brown, the Patriots’ first round draft pick this season, but as a run-stopping specialist, this might be his time to have a breakout game.

The passing game of the Jets shouldn’t concern the Patriots too much, as long as they double up on Marshall. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a mediocre quarterback when he’s at his best, and a truly awful one when he’s not. The Patriots have been successful against him in the past; he has a 1-6 record against the Patriots, throwing 13 touchdowns and a whopping 17 interceptions in those seven games. He still turns the ball over at an alarming rate with seven interceptions in five games this season. Tom Brady will win the turnover battle against Fitzpatrick this Sunday and that’s the main reason why they’ll win.

Offensively the Patriots are operating at a level far higher than anyone else in the NFL this season except for maybe the Packers. Make no mistake about it; the Jets have one of the best defenses in the league, ranked first overall. But again, aside from Andrew Luck, they’ve beaten three of the worst quarterbacks in football this season (Josh McCown, Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins). They also have been giving up points even in their wins, including 20 to the Redskins last week. If the Redskins can score 20 on this defense, who’s to say the far superior Patriots; offense can’t score 40?

The biggest question mark for the Patriots right now is the offensive line. With Nate Solder out for the season, and Marcus Cannon seemingly out this week (not officially out yet, however), the Patriots are extremely thin at the tackle position. Bowles traditionally dials up more blitzes than any other coach in the league, and the Jets have the team to exploit the Patriots banged up line. The Pats will have to find a way to get the ball out of Brady’s hand quickly and establish the running game early.

Fortunately, the Jets strong secondary doesn’t matchup well with the Patriots. Revis is known for taking the opponents’ number-one receiver out of the game, but he struggles against the small, quick receivers like Julian Edelman. At some point in his career Cromartie may have been able to make things interesting for Rob Gronkowski, but at 31 he’s got no chance against a Gronk in his prime. For that matter, no one has a chance of covering Gronk. I’d expect a lot more Dion Lewis than LeGarrette Blount given that his quickness and pass-catching ability will be a lot more valuable against a defense that’s strength is stuffing a power-running game.

My Prediction: The Jets have improved a lot since last season, but they haven’t seen a team anywhere near as good as the Patriots this season, and that will show up on Sunday. Aside from that, the Pats are at home and on a roll, and they’ll keep rolling this week 31-21.