Thanksgiving Week Power Rankings

The wonderful time of year filled with family, turkey and NFL playoff races is finally upon us: it’s Thanksgiving week. We’re now 11 weeks into the season and every team in the NFL has played 10 games. Bye weeks are over and we’re into the stretch run to the playoffs.

With only a few good teams clearly on course to make the playoffs, both the AFC and NFC playoff pictures are getting pretty congested. So what better time than the present to put together a full power rankings of every team with a shot to make the playoffs? Let’s take a look at where every team stands after 10 games, and predict which ones will make it into the playoffs, and which won’t.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Playoffs? YES

This was the easiest decision on the whole list, and it’s pretty obvious why. They have the best record in the NFL and it’s no fluke. They have a top-10 defense and a top-5 offense that got even better with the addition of running back Jay Ajayi at the trade deadline. They’ve already run away with the NFC East (4 games up on the Cowboys) and almost certainly will earn a bye for Wild Card Weekend.

2. New England Patriots (8-2)

Playoffs? YES

This one was also pretty easy. You can’t really bet against the defending champs, who haven’t lost since October 1^st , coming off back-to-back blowout road wins in Denver and then Mexico City against the Raiders. The offense is positively unstoppable, and they’re still waiting to get Chris Hogan back from injury, who was leading the team in receptions among receivers when he went down. As usual they’re getting stronger as the season wears on, and I fully expect them to be playing in Minneapolis come February.

3. New Orleans Saints (8-2)

Playoffs? YES

If it weren’t for the L.A. Rams, the Saints would be the biggest surprise to me this season on both sides of the football. Defensively, they were one of the league’s worst last season, giving up the 2^nd most points in the league. This season they’ve made a huge jump, allowing the 10^th fewest points in the NFL. Offensively they’ve put together a two-headed rushing attack of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara that ranks 3^rd in the league, averaging 144 yards per game. That rushing attack has opposing defenses scratching their heads, as they still have to game-plan for Drew Brees throwing the ball an average of 34.1 times per game. They’re looking more and more like last year’s Falcons with each week.

4. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)

Playoffs? YES

The Vikings are easily the most impressive team of 2017. Despite being without their top two quarterbacks and top running back, they keep winning games. Most recently they made easy work of the 7-2 L.A. Rams by a score of 24-7. The only way I can see this team falling apart is if their quarterback situation turns into a quarterback controversy. Teddy Bridgewater is finally healthy once again after a knee injury held him out all of last season and the first nine weeks of this season, but it will be really hard to bench Case Keenum after he’s taken the team this far.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

Playoffs? YES

The Steelers are clearly the second-best team in the AFC, and their 8-2 record would indicate that they deserve to be in the conversation with the best teams in the league, but they really don’t pass the eye test. They’ve won four games by fewer than six points, including two against teams at the bottom of the league (they beat both the Browns and Colts by only three points). Their 40-17 win over the Titans on Thursday night was their most convincing win, but it really only came down to the fact that the Titans couldn’t figure out how to cover Antonio Brown, who lit them up for 144 yards and three touchdowns. We won’t really see what this Steelers team is made of until Week 15 against the Patriots.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)

Playoffs? YES

A team quarterbacked by Blake Bortles in the top 6?!? Am I crazy? Maybe, but this team is all about defense and running the football. Bortles is simply along for the ride, as the Jags defense is ranked first in the NFL in both yards and points allowed. They have the top rushing offense in the league, averaging 160.6 yards per game on the ground, a whopping 16 yards per game more than second place. If Bortles continues to be merely average they will run away with the AFC South en route to a combination of words I never imagined I would type: a home playoff game in Jacksonville.

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-3)

Playoffs? YES

The L.A. Rams are by far the most surprising team this season. After finishing 5-11 in 2016, including seven consecutive losses to close the season, the Rams have bounced back in a big way under new head coach Sean McVay. He seems to have tapped into Jared Goff’s potential as a quarterback, and Todd Gurley got over his sophomore slump and is once again running like a man possessed. With the offense pulling their weight this year, the dominant defensive front has shined, ranking 8^th in the league in sacks and the defense as a whole ranks 8^th in points allowed. They didn’t look good on Sunday in their matchup with the Vikings, but hopefully it was just the result of a tough road game, not a sign of things to come.

8. Carolina Panthers (7-3)

Playoffs? YES

Much like the Steelers, the Panthers are another team whose record is better than they look as a team when they’re actually on the field. They have quality wins against the Patriots and Lions, mixed in with a 17-3 loss to the Bears. The only reason I have them in the playoffs is that they’re already sitting at 7 wins, needing likely to go only 3-3 the rest of the way to get in. With games against the Jets, Packers and Buccaneers still on the schedule, that shouldn’t be too hard to accomplish.

9. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Playoffs? NO

The Atlanta Falcons may finally be shaking off the Super Bowl disaster that haunted them to a slow start this season. They got a quality road win on Monday Night Football in Seattle, even without their star running back Devonta Freeman. The win brought them to 6-4 and their high-flying offense looks to be getting back into gear. It’s going to be too little too late for them, however, as a brutal schedule down the stretch will have them finishing 3-3 if they’re lucky. But who knows, maybe they’ll come all the way back to last year’s form and surprise me, but this week, I have them outside of the playoffs looking in.

10. Detroit Lions (6-4)

Playoffs? YES

The Lions have had a bit of an up & down season thus far, currently sitting on a 3-game winning streak that was preceded by a 3-game losing streak. They’ve more or less won the games they were expected to win (Browns, Bears, Packers, Giants, Cardinals) and lost the ones they were expected to lose (Steelers, Saints, Falcons, Panthers). They’re one marquee win was a 14-7 slugfest with the Vikings back in Week 4. They don’t do anything on either side of the ball exceptionally well, but quarterback Matthew Stafford has done enough in the passing game to take care of the football and win games. The main reason I have them making the playoffs is their remaining schedule. Wins against the Buccaneers, Bears, Bengals and Packers would get them to 10 wins, which should be good enough to grab a Wild Card spot.

11. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

Playoffs? NO

Here’s another team, like the Falcons, that may be finding their offense a little too late. They started the season horribly on that side of the ball, leading to a 2-2 start in the easiest portion of their schedule. Now as they find their offense, they’ve lost two all-pro defensive backs in Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman to season ending injuries and the defense is falling apart as a result. As much as it may appear so at times, Russell Wilson can’t will his team to victory every week. With very tough matchups against the Rams, Jaguars, and Eagles left on the schedule, it’s hard to see this team getting in.

12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

Playoffs? YES

You know it’s a bad year in the NFL when a 4-6 team grabs the 12th spot on this list, but it’s where I honestly believe the L.A. Chargers belong. Five of their six losses have been by only one score, including tight losses to good teams like the Eagles, Patriots and Jaguars. They have possibly the best pass-rush in the NFL spearheaded by second-year star Joey Bosa. Last week they disgraced the Buffalo Bills 54-24, intercepting rookie QB Nathan Peterman five times before the half. In that game Philip Rivers finally found a way to get Keenan Allen the ball down the field and he dominated with 12 catches for 159 yards and two scores. If they can get more of that out of the offense, I can see them winning their final six games against a fairly easy schedule and squeezing into a Wild Card spot in the pitiful AFC.

13. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Playoffs? YES

Boy has this team taken a tumble. After starting 5-0, they’ve lost four of their last five, including the last one, in the most ugly fashion, losing 12-9 in overtime to the 2-8 New York Giants, who have visibly already quit on their season. Nonetheless, it’s still the same roster that took the league by storm early in the season, and lucky for them they still have the Bills, Jets and Dolphins on the schedule (2 at home) which means they’ll likely only have to win one of their three divisional games remaining to win the AFC West.

14. Tennessee Titans (6-4)

Playoffs? YES

The Titans came into the season with a lot of hype as many talking heads had them picked as their sneaky-good contender. They haven’t quite lived up to the preseason billing, but they’ve been good enough despite some injuries hampering their starting running back and quarterback. Luckily for them their next four games are against teams whose records combine to 12-28. If they win those four, they’ll likely make Week 17s matchup with the Jaguars a game that decides who wins the division, and who gets the top Wild Card.

15. Washington Redskins (4-6)

Playoffs? NO

Like the Chargers, the Redskins seem to be a lot better than their record would indicate. They too have lost by single digits to several good teams like the Saints, Vikings and Chiefs, and will benefit from a weak schedule to finish. Unfortunately the Redskins play in a much tougher NFC, and have almost no hope of getting into the playoffs if they lose even one game down the stretch.

16. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Playoffs? NO

The Ravens defense has been very strong this year, posting three shutouts. It doesn’t matter that they were all against terrible teams, shutouts in the NFL are hard to come by, never mind three of them in ten games. The problem with this team is the offense which ranks 31st in the NFL. Defense may win championships, but there still has to be some semblance of an offense as well. The Ravens don’t have that.

17. Oakland Raiders (4-6)

Playoffs? NO

The Raiders are the exact opposite of the Ravens. The offense has been just fine, though not as strong as last season, but the defense can’t stop anyone. The team tried to correct that Tuesday by firing their defensive coordinator, but it won’t be enough to dig out of the 4-6 hole they’ve dug, especially with road games at Kansas City, Philadelphia and L.A. (Chargers) left on the schedule.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)

Playoffs? NO

The Bengals have been a disappointment this season. Granted, I may be the only one who’s disappointed having wagered a few shekels on them making the playoffs this year, but I really didn’t expect them to be this bad. They added a talented running back to a team that made the playoffs last year, but for whatever reason they’ve regressed. Wait, Marvin Lewis is still their head coach? Never mind, I probably should have seen this coming.

19. Buffalo Bills (5-5)

Playoffs? HA! NO

Last week they benched starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor for 5th round rookie Nathan Peterman. Peterman threw FIVE interceptions before halftime and was benched once again for Tyrod Taylor. Even after all that, Head Coach Doug McDermott still won’t commit to Tyrod Taylor. That’s all you need to know about the Bills.

 

Apologies to the fan bases of the 12 other teams that didn’t make this list, but let’s just say if any team not on this list makes the playoffs, I’ll quit this blog on the spot. Hold me to it.

Patriots Mid-Season Grades

The New England Patriots have reached the halfway point in their season, going 6-2 in their first eight games heading into the bye week. It seems crazy that half of the regular season has passed us by, as this Patriots team still feels very new. We haven’t seen the best (hopefully) of either Brandin Cooks or Stephon Gilmore, the team’s two major offseason acquisitions, and in a lot of ways it feels like the Patriots are still figuring out how to play their best football.

Regardless, it’s still the halfway point in the season, and thus a fair sample to grade the team on. So that’s exactly what I’ll do by giving mid-term grades to each position group on the Patriots.

 

Offensive Line

Grade: C-

 

The offensive line is a tough group to grade, as they have been very inconsistent all season. Their grade through five games would have been a resounding F, as Tom Brady was sacked 16 times in that span, once more than in all 12 games last year.

Since week five, the Patriots have allowed five sacks in three games, dropping their sacks per game average from 3.2 through five weeks to 2.6 through eight weeks. If they can maintain the 1.67 sacks per game rate they had going over the last three weeks, we may see Brady survive the season. If they revert to the performances from early in the season, Brady could end the season on injured reserve.

It’s tough to judge the line on the running game, as the Patriots rank 15th in the league rushing, but first in passing, so it’s obviously a scheme more focused on the air attack. The team yards per carry isn’t very good, ranking 21st in the NFL at 3.9. It’s hard to blame that on the line however, as it’s likely brought down by a poor start from Mike Gillislee who handled most of the running game for the first few weeks.

Gillislee has a 3.6 YPC average while the other three running backs have YPC averages over 4.3, which is why we’ve seen Dion Lewis take over more of the early-down work in place of Gillislee. If Lewis’ 4.7 YPC average can hold, we’ll know that the problem wasn’t with the offensive line, but with the ball carrier.

 

Quarterback

Grade: A+

 

You really can’t ask for more out of a quarterback than what Tom Brady has given this year, never mind the fact that he’s 40 years old. He’s currently on pace to throw for 5,082 yards, which would be the second highest total of his whole career. Add that to 32 touchdowns and only four interceptions and I imagine he would have to end the season as the league’s MVP.

 

Running Back

Grade: B

I wanted to give them a lower grade here, but I can’t because I don’t feel this position group was used properly by the coaching staff for the first five weeks of the season. Beginning in week six we finally started seeing Lewis and James White on the field at the same time, and both Lewis and White in general have been used more. Gillislee has taken his rightful seat on the bench, except on 3rd and short and around the goal line, where he still hasn’t been very useful other than week one.

Rex Burkhead appears to be getting healthy after an early-season rib injury hampered him for several weeks. He still may emerge as the best all-around back that the Patriots have on their roster, and if he keeps trending up, I expect this grade to be much higher at the end of the season.

 

Wide Receiver / Tight End

Grade: A

 

It’s really hard to find a flaw in this receiving group that lost its heart & soul, Julian Edelman, to an ACL tear in preseason. Chris Hogan has picked up a lot of the slack that Edelman left behind along with Danny Amendola and White as a pass-catching running back.

Brandin Cooks has been a welcome addition, though I still don’t feel he’s fully broken loose in this offense. It’s possible with all the injuries already piling up that Josh McDaniels simply doesn’t want to risk Cooks’ health by running him over the middle, but with his speed it seems like he would have no trouble separating from interior defenders between the numbers. I’m sure as the games get more and more important, we’ll see a more complex route tree for Cooks.

The only reason this group didn’t get an A+ is the second tight end, Dwayne Allen. He has been a complete no-show through eight weeks, as he is either having trouble dealing with all the nuances of playing in the Patriots offense, or he is just plain not good enough. Either way, he’s been a huge disappointment.

 

Defensive Line

Grade: C-

Make no mistake about it, the defensive line has been very poor to start this season. The Patriots defense is allowing the second highest YPC average to opposing running backs at 5.1, and ranks 20th in the NFL in sacks with 16. Those are really bad numbers, so you might think they should get an even lower grade.

I agree, except that I like to consider who is actually on that line before grading too harshly. When you consider rookies Adam Butler and Deatrich Wise Jr. are both playing the majority of the snaps on defense, I can cut them a little slack for not looking very good in the first few weeks of their budding NFL careers. This is especially true given that the highest-drafted rookie on that line, Derek Rivers, went down with a season-ending injury during preseason.

If those two rookies continue to progress at a rapid rate, and either Malcolm Brown or Alan Branch can step up and solidify himself as the anchor in the middle of that line, then they have a chance to be an average NFL line. If neither of those guys steps up or Trey Flowers gets injured, then this position group is in serious trouble.

 

Linebacker

Grade: D-

 

This was the weakest position group on the Patriots heading into the season, and nothing has changed. In fact, they got worse with the news that the only star in their group, Dont’a Hightower, is done for the season with a torn pectoral. The lone bright spot in this group has been Kyle Van Noy, who took the signal-calling responsibilities in Hightower’s absence. Van Noy is a great athlete, and it seems as though his football IQ is beginning to catch up.

Otherwise this group has been atrocious. Elandon Roberts is a train wreck and has clearly regressed from year one to year two. He’s known as a run stuffer, but hasn’t been much of one this season, and he’s completely hopeless in coverage. David Harris, who came over in free agency after a great career with the Jets, is showing his years, as he’s lost more than a step or two physically.

Since the trade deadline has now come and gone without the Patriots adding a linebacker, as they often do at this time of year, their only hope comes in the form of Shea McClellin. McClellin was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return at the beginning of the season, and he is eligible to come back to the field after the bye week. Given that he returned to the practice field on October 18th, I fully expect him to be game ready by November 12th at Mile High Stadium.

 

Defensive Backs

Grade: D+

 

This is another group that has been wildly inconsistent, thus hard to grade. While high-priced free agent Stephon Gilmore has been a complete disappointment, if not an all out bust, Johnson Bademosi has been equally surprising as a very solid cover corner.

Malcolm Butler started the season terribly before picking things up in weeks six through eight. Devon McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon have all performed as expected, with no real highs or lows to call attention to.

Overall as a unit, they were awful in the beginning of the season, leaving receivers completely uncovered downfield leading to a number of long touchdowns and big plays. In recent weeks they’ve tightened up considerably, which is the only reason they got the ‘+’.
This was supposed to be one of the league’s top units heading in to the season, but they haven’t come anywhere near that to this point in the season. Here’s hoping when Gilmore comes back healthy, he’ll have a better understanding of the defense and they can begin to dominate.

The 2017 NFL: Bringing Back Parity

Which NFL teams are good this year? I was going to do another power rankings, but I could make a case for about 12 teams to be in the top-5, and only the Chiefs and Eagles came to mind when I questioned which teams absolutely deserved top-5 status. Then there’s the rest of the group. Patriots, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, Texans, Steelers, Jaguars, Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, Redskins and so on.

There’s 11 teams right there that I could honestly make a case for each team being better than the others. Parity has reared its ugly head once again in the NFL, and while the league likes to frame it in a positive light, I personally hate it. Allow me to elaborate.

I don’t hate the idea of parity. Parity by itself is great. It means more fan bases stay more intrigued for longer as playoff races come down to the final weeks of the season, and any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. We’ve heard that phrase thousands of times. But parity doesn’t exist in a vacuum, there has to be a root cause.

By my estimation, there really are only two reasons for parity: Everybody is good, or everybody is bad. If every team were good, parity in the NFL would be the greatest thing in sports. The problem is that the exact opposite is true, every team in this year’s NFL stinks.

Start with this statistic: we’re only six weeks into the season and 30 out of 32 teams have two losses or more. Only the Eagles and Chiefs stand at 5-1 and there are no undefeated teams. So they must be the two good teams this year, right? And maybe they are, but do we really believe we’ll be watching Alex Smith and Carson Wentz in Super Bowl LII? I know I don’t.

So who’s next after those two teams? Naturally you’d go to the Steelers, who just ended the Chiefs’ winning streak, but then you have to look at their two losses. They got dismantled by the Jaguars 30-9 and lost to Mike Glennon (who has since been benched) and the Chicago Bears in week 3.

The Falcons as the reigning NFC champs and returning almost their whole roster, or the New England Patriots as their AFC equivalent, would be teams that come to mind when you think of the NFL’s elite this year. Yet the Falcons have lost back-to-back home games to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, while the Patriots were blown out by the Chiefs, beaten by the Panthers, and narrowly squeaked past the Jets.

The Broncos dominated Dallas before losing in Buffalo and getting blown out at home by the 0-5 Giants. The Vikings are a solid 4-2 team, but were held to single-digit point totals in their losses to the Steelers and Lions. The Panthers have looked good at times, but they have two home losses, including a spanking at the hands of the Saints. The Rams are a nice surprise at 4-2, but they too have two home losses to the Redskins and Seahawks.

What about the Legion of Boom and those Seattle Seahawks? Oh yea, they’ve already lost to the Packers and Titans, and narrowly slipped past the lowly 49ers with a score of 12-9. The Raiders were preseason darlings, but they’ve fallen to 2-4 and are in serious danger of missing the playoffs given how tough their division is. I could continue for just about every team in the NFL, except for Cleveland, San Francisco and the New York Giants, but 9 examples of teams that should be good but aren’t seems to be enough to prove my point. Everybody is mediocre.

There is one team I would like to make a special shout out to, as they might be the most confusing team in league history. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-3, and it really feels like they field two different teams, one that is 3-0 and the other that is 0-3. So far, there’s been no way of knowing which team will come out to play, other than looking at what they did last week and expecting them to do the complete opposite.

They opened the season with a beat down of the Texans so bad that it ended Tom Savage’s run as Houston’s starting quarterback after just one half. They followed up that win in Houston with a blowout loss at home to the Titans. That was the moment when we all agreed the Jaguars are still the Jaguars and week one was a fluke.

But then they flew to London in week three and jackhammered the Ravens 44-7. After London they went to New York and lost in overtime to the Jets before going on the road and intercepting Ben Roethlisberger FIVE times en route to a 30-9 victory. After that performance against a good* team like the Steelers, I actually started to believe that they were going to be something this year, but then they stayed true to their pattern and lost 27-17 at home to the Rams on Sunday. Who is this team?

 

Power Rankings

Now that I’m done complaining about how bad everyone is I’ll take a crack at actually naming the top five teams in the league through 6 weeks.

• Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)

 

Carson Wentz looks like he’s ready to be a legitimate NFL superstar and I’m excited to bear witness to it. Couple him with a frightening front-seven on defense and the Eagles have a pretty strong recipe for success.

 

2.) Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)

One ugly loss to the Steelers is not enough to undo the truly impressive 5-0 start against a relatively tough schedule. If they still have a good record after their next three games which are against the Raiders, Broncos and Cowboys, we’ll know for sure that they’re a legitimate contender.

 

3.) Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

The Vikings have quietly been one of the league’s most impressive teams this season. They’ve been fielding third string quarterback Case Keenum for 5 straight games since Sam Bradford was injured in week one and Teddy Bridgewater continues to rehab from his catastrophic knee injury suffered well over a year ago. In addition, star rookie running back Dalvin Cook tore his ACL in week four and they’ve won both games since his injury. They can thank their defense for that, and when Bridgewater comes back (or even Sam Bradford) look for this team to dominate the NFC North in Aaron Rodgers’ absence.

 

4.) New England Patriots (4-2)

The Patriots defense is historically bad. I’m not exaggerating either. Through six weeks they’re still on pace through to give up more yards per play than any team in league history. Luckily 40-year-old Tom Brady is still performing at an elite level, on track to have one of the best seasons of his career. While the defense lacks talent in some spots, most of their issues are fixable. They’ve been leaving receivers WIDE open, which can be resolved. When they stop doing that (they will stop doing that, won’t they?) the defense will look about average, which should be good enough for Brady to outscore the opponent.

 

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

 The last spot was a total toss up so I went with the 4-2 team with the most talent, and who also just happened to knock off the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team. With Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Ben Roethlisberger, this team should be putting up way more points than they are. I expect this offense to get going at some point soon, and when they do, look out.

 

Patriots-Falcons Prediction

Here’s a bonus pick for the Pats game on Sunday Night Football. Part of me believes Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will have their way all night en route to a 500-yard passing performance and a blowout win. But the other part of me saw them blow a 17-0 halftime lead at home to Jay “I’m Just Here For The Paycheck” Cutler and the Miami Dolphins. They’re clearly still haunted by their infamous Super Bowl collapse, and they won’t be able to come to Foxborough and beat the Patriots until they can put those demons behind them. I’m taking the Patriots 38-34.

The Patriots Defense is Bad… Historically Bad

You may remember my season preview of the Patriots from a few weeks ago where I expressed my concerns about the Patriots’ front seven. Well, I never thought it would be this bad. The Pats defense is ranked dead last in the NFL in yards allowed, and they’re on a historically awful pace.

They are currently allowing 7.1 yards per play to their opponents, a mark that would be the worst in the entire history of NFL if it were to hold up over the length of the season. Of course, no one expects that it will hold up given just how astronomical it is, but the stat puts into perspective just how bad the Patriots defense has been through three weeks.

Last week, they made rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson look like the second coming of Steve Young as he threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns, and added 41 yards on the ground in just his second career NFL start. Though the Pats managed to get some good pressure on Watson, on several occasions he was able to evade the rush and make long throws down the field, or pick up yards with his feet.

This week they’ll face a near identical quarterback in Cam Newton, only Newton has sixe more years of NFL experience. He can beat you on the ground or through the air, and is one of the toughest players to bring down. I would not be surprised to see the Patriots ease up on the pass rush and simply look to contain Newton in the pocket.

That will be a tough task to accomplish, as the defensive line will still have to be aggressive in stopping the run, as coach Ron Rivera and the Carolina Panthers love to run the football. They’re pretty good at it too with a strong two-headed backfield consisting of veteran Jonathan Stewart and rookie Christian McCaffrey who does most of his damage as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

When you combine the talented backfield with two 6’5” wide receivers in Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess, the Panthers pose a series of matchup problems for the Patriots. On the outside Malcolm Butler gives up six inches to both receivers, and taller corner Eric Rowe is questionable with a groin injury this week.

They don’t have a linebacker that can cover McCaffrey which would lead me to believe we’ll see a lot of their “Big Nickel” set which involves swapping one of the linebackers for a safety. This season they’ve played a large percentage of their defensive snaps in that formation with three corners and three safeties on the field, but that formation won’t hold up against the power running game.

The only reason the Patriots are 2-1 is because Tom Brady has been other-worldly in back-to-back weeks, earning AFC offensive player of the week in each of the last two. He’s already thrown for 1,092 yards and eight touchdowns in three games. That puts him on a pace to throw for 5,823 yards—which would shatter Drew Brees’ record for passing yards in a season—and 43 TDs. He simply can’t keep that pace up all season, so the defense will need to step up to take some pressure off their 40-year-old quarterback.

That being said, I expect Brady to once again roast a weak secondary with his downfield weapons Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan. The running game has been a struggle for the Pats all season and against the strong defensive front of the Panthers, I don’t see that changing.

While I’ve been begging all season to see the running backs get more involved in the passing game, this probably isn’t the week we’ll see it. Panthers’ linebacker Luke Kuechly is the best in the league, and his speed, range, and coverage skills will make it tough for backs to get open in the flats. Unless the Panthers plan on using Kuechly to slow down Rob Gronkowski, in which case I would once again hope to see Dion Lewis and James White get more involved catching the football.

Prediction: The Panthers are a very similar team to the Houston Texans in almost every facet of the game, so I expect to see a very similar game. Look for another high scoring affair that comes down the final few possessions, with Brady working his magic once again. I’ve got the Patriots 34-31.

NFL’s Best Through Two Weeks

Since the Patriots went down to New Orleans and took care of business on Sunday, and the low-scoring Houston Texans aren’t exactly generating a lot of buzz prior to their visit to Foxborough, I thought I’d take the opportunity to take a look around the rest of the NFL. We’ve had two weeks of football so far, and while we still don’t know much about a lot of teams, a few teams have begun separating themselves from the pack.

We’re used to seeing teams like the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys in anyone’s discussions about the top-5 teams in the NFL, but they haven’t done enough to show they really belong in that conversation through two weeks. Both the Cowboys and Packers were blown out in week 2 by teams in my top-5, and the Steelers are 2-0 but against the Cleveland Browns, and a Minnesota Vikings team that started Case Keenum under center. Not exactly stellar competition. So let’s take a look at which teams did crack my top five, and a couple of honorable mentions.

 

Honorable Mentions

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are off to a 2-0 start with convincing wins over the Cardinals and Giants. Their defense looks better than expected, and Matthew Stafford looks to be earning his monster extension signed this offseason, as he has leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 6. Strength of competition is what kept them out of my top 5, as neither the Cardinals nor the Giants look like they’re going to win more than 6 games this season.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are another 2-0 team against very weak competition. They’ve beaten the Cincinnati Bengals, who look like an absolute train wreck right now, and the Cleveland Browns. Still, despite the weak competition, the Ravens have looked utterly dominant in both wins, not letting either team even sniff an upset. The Ravens defense is showing flashes of old, pummeling quarterbacks and racking up turnovers.

 

The Top Five

5) New England Patriots

How can I possibly put the Pats in this conversation after the beat down they took from the Chiefs in week one? Well, they’re the reigning champs, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and the team bounced back admirably in week two on both sides of the football. Rob Gronkowski looked like his usual unstoppable self, and we’ve yet to see the Patriots truly unleash the depth of talent they have at the running back position.

Defensively there are still a lot of questions, but the offense may have most of the answers. The strength of the defense is in the secondary, and as long as the offense can continue to put up points, they’ll force their opponents to throw the ball more, playing right into the Patriots’ hands. Additionally, some of the younger, lesser-known defensive players have begun stepping up. On the defensive line both Deathrich Wise and Adam Butler look ready for starting roles in the NFL, and Jonathan Jones had an outstanding performance in New Orleans as the slot cornerback. I fully expect this Patriots team to win a couple in a row and be back on top of the AFC East in no time.

 

4) Kansas City Chiefs

Any team that goes into Foxborough and beats the pants off the Patriots in the season-opener deserves respect. They seem to have found an immediate replacement for Jamaal Charles with rookie running back Kareem Hunt, who has an astounding 355 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns through his first two NFL games. Alex Smith looks like he’s had a fire lit under him, likely due to the fact that the Chiefs traded up to draft a quarterback in the top 10. It’s not the first time in his career he’s been playing for his job, and he’s responding with some of the best football of his life.

Defensively they took a huge blow in losing safety Eric Berry for the season to a ruptured Achilles, otherwise they might be further up this list. Berry single-handedly shut down Gronk in their first game, and is the emotional leader of the defense. They won’t be able to replace him, but there’s still plenty of talent left defensively. Unfortunately for them, they play in the AFC West, home to three of the teams on this list.

 

3) Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders have picked up right where they left off before Derek Carr broke his leg at the end of last season. Carr has been magnificent and Marshawn Lynch looks like he hasn’t missed a snap despite having retired for all of last season. Add him to an already star-studded offense with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and Oakland’s offense is not one that any team wants to face. Oh yeah, and they might have the best offensive line in the NFL as well.

Defensively the Raiders have Khalil Mack. That’s about all they need, but having guys like Bruce Irvin, Sean Smith and Mario Edwards certainly doesn’t hurt. They’re not going to stifle the best offenses in the league, but they won’t have to given how strong the offense is.

 

2) Atlanta Falcons

This past offseason many experts were predicting that the Falcons would suffer from a Super Bowl hangover of sorts and miss the playoffs in 2017. When they squeaked out a one-possession victory over the lowly Chicago Bears in week one, they didn’t change anyone’s minds.

But then they took the field in their brand new stadium in Atlanta and blew the doors off the Green Bay Packers. The final score of 34-23 doesn’t do the dominant victory enough justice as the Packers tacked on 13 points in garbage time of what was a 34-10 game going into the fourth quarter.

It was a statement from the Falcons telling the league that they have almost the exact same roster that took them all the way to overtime of the Super Bowl last year, and they plan to be right back there again. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman are still among the NFL’s elite at their respective positions, and they make the Falcons almost impossible to play defense against.

 

1) Denver Broncos

The Broncos might have found their quarterback, and man is that a scary thought for the rest of the league. We saw this defense carry a useless Peyton Manning to a Super Bowl two years ago, then sputter a bit last season as the offense failed to find an identity. Enter second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian who looks nothing like the mediocre game-manager he was last year. He’s amassed 450 yards and six touchdowns through two games, and he’s making it look easy.

With a strong group of skill position guys in CJ Anderson, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, he’s made the Broncos offense look like one of the league’s best. Add that to the NFL’s top defense and the Broncos could be looking like Super Bowl favorites very shortly. They have the best cornerback tandem in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. as well as the best pass rusher in Von Miller. Consider this my way of putting the rest of the NFL on notice; the Broncos are not to be overlooked.

Patriots Embarrassed in Opener; Can They Bounce Back?

“Bad defense. Bad coaching. Bad playing. Bad football.” Bill Belichick summed up the New England Patriots’ week one loss to the Kansas City Chiefs with those four simple phrases. His description was spot on, as the Pats did almost nothing well in a 42-27 beat down at home in the 2017 NFL opener.

Defensively the team allowed 537 yards to a Chiefs offense that ranked 20th in the league last season. They couldn’t stop anything as the Chiefs eclipsed 180 yards on the ground and over 350 yards through the air. Offensively, Tom Brady completed fewer than half of his passing attempts and the team averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. All around, it was a dismal performance.

Most disappointing, however, was the poor play calling. Whatever anyone thinks of the Patriots, I think we can all agree they’re extremely well coached. That didn’t show on Thursday Night, as Josh McDaniels had the offense running a very boring and predictable scheme. Despite losing Danny Amendola to injury part way through the second half, the Patriots rarely went to two-back sets and threw the ball to their runners out of the backfield.

Dion Lewis saw the field for just six snaps, which is inexcusable given how much of a game changer he can be in the open field, especially in the passing game. The Patriots had great success last season when they rolled Lewis and James White out on the field at the same time, and the two were never on the field together in week one.

The Patriots could even have put three running backs on the field at the same time. Imagine this: Dion Lewis in the slot, White and Rex Burkhead on either side of Brady in gun. Then Lewis motions from one side of the field to the other at the snap, opening up the possibility for a sweep or a bubble screen. That would be a matchup nightmare for any defense.

That formation would give the Patriots so many options to run or pass to either side of the field, especially if Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks were the other two skill players on the field to stretch the defense vertically. Regardless of whether or not the Patriots want to get that tricky with their formations, the running backs absolutely must be more involved in the passing game if the Patriots want to move the chains without Julian Edelman in the lineup.

Defensively the Patriots were a nightmare. The Chiefs mercilessly exploited the lack of depth and talent in the Pats front seven all night long. They accounted for the worst defensive performance by a Bill Belichick coached team in his entire career. The scary part is that it didn’t look like the Patriots were calling the wrong plays or making too many mental errors on defense, but simply that they didn’t have the man power to slow the Chiefs down.

If Alex Smith and a rookie running back can shred their defense like that, the Patriots are going to have a very difficult time againse elite offenses on their schedule like the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t have much analysis for the defense, because they were just plain bad. Hopefully Belichick and Matt Patricia can come up with some schemes that mask their deficiencies up front, but it certainly looks like the Patriots will be surrendering a lot of points this season.

On to New Orleans

The defensing champs will travel down to New Orleans on Sunday afternoon to take on a Saints team that was embarrassed on Monday Night Football by the Minnesota Vikings. The good news there is that the Saints will be playing on 6 days rest while the Patriots will have had 9 days off to prepare.

The Saints don’t pose the same threats to the Patriots front seven, as they’re one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to running the football. They are, however, very dangerous in the passing game, especially at home in the Super Dome. We’ll get a good look at how well Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gillmore perform together against an elite quarterback in Drew Brees.

This should be a great week for the offense to bounce back, as Sam Bradford carved up the Saints defense for 346 yards and three touchdowns. If Bradford can do that with Adam Theilen and Stefon Diggs, imagine what Brady can do with Gronk, Cooks and White. This is going to be a very high scoring affair, but I can’t see the Patriots starting the season 0-2, so I’ll take the Pats 42-31.

2017 Patriots Preview: Destined for Glory?

It’s no secret that the Patriots spent the 2017 offseason loading up on talent. They traded a first and a third round pick for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and gave the biggest contract of free agency to cornerback Stephon Gilmore. The signed running backs Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee, as well as extending the contract of Super Bowl hero James White.

As the reigning champions, the Patriots are widely regarded as the favorites to raise the Lombardi Trophy once again after adding a lot of talent to an already stellar team. While the talk all offseason has been about who could possibly beat the Patriots, and even some crazy people talking 19-0, I think it’s been a bit overblown. The team has some significant holes in the roster that could be their downfall over the course of a long season. Allow me to elaborate.

 

OFFENSE

The Pats offense has already taken a huge blow, losing Julian Edelman for the year due to a torn ACL suffered in preseason action. Edelman was targeted over 150 times last season, including on 36% of the team’s third downs. Those are massive numbers that won’t simply be replaced by any one player. There is only one Julian Edelman in the NFL, and he is irreplaceable.

It will take a committee of players to make up for Edelman’s production starting with Cooks. Cooks might be the fastest guy in the NFL and his ability to use that speed to get open will play a huge role in the Patriots offense. Not only can he take the top off a defense by tracking down a deep ball, it’s almost impossible for anyone to cover him on short crossing routes that take him from one sideline to the other in the blink of an eye. He was Drew Brees’ favorite target in New Orleans, and it won’t be surprising if he quickly becomes Tom Brady’s go-to-guy in Edelman’s absence.

I also expect to see an inordinate number of two-back sets this season. The Patriots have three elite pass-catching running backs in White, Burkhead and Dion Lewis. All three guys can easily create mismatches with linebackers in coverage, and if the Patriots deploy two of them at once, opposing defenses will have their hands full trying to match up.

Edelman’s injury also puts an enormous emphasis on Rob Gronkowski’s health this season. Gronk has a tough time finishing seasons, but when he’s on the field he’s one of the most dominant pass catchers in league history. If he can stay healthy he will be a huge part of the offense both as a pass catcher and as someone that draws the attention of opposing defenses, leaving some of the Patriots’ other weapons in favorable matchups.

I’m also expecting a strong performance out of Chris Hogan. Hogan had a strong year with the Patriots in 2016, but it wasn’t really until the end of the regular season and into the playoffs that the Patriots really started using him effectively. Now that he’s got a full year under his belt, building chemistry with Brady, I expect him to get a lot more opportunities to make an impact.

The only real point of concern on this offense is line. We’ve hardly seen Nate Solder on the practice field all summer, and with his injuries beginning to pile up, it’s hard to see him playing 16 games. The guys behind him on the depth chart, LaAdrian Waddle and Cameron Fleming, don’t exactly inspire confidence in their ability to protect Number 12. At 40-years-old, Brady can’t be expected to hold up physically if he is getting hit early and often.

 

DEFENSE      

 Defensively the Patriots are not nearly as stacked or as deep as they are on the other side of the ball. The addition of Gilmore to a secondary that already included pro-bowlers Devon McCourty and Malcolm Butler makes for one of the league’s best group of defensive backs. However, the depth of talent ends there on defense.

The front seven will look a lot different this season compared to last, and there are a lot of questions marks. Outside of Dont’a Hightower, Trey Flowers and Malcolm Brown, the starting lineup in the front seven is entirely up in the air. There are some promising rookies in the trenches in Deatrich Wise Jr. and Adam Butler, but strong preseason performances don’t always correlate to NFL success.

The retirement of Rob Ninkovich one week into training camp really shook things up for the Patriots, as he played in almost every scenario as either an outside linebacker or a defensive end. He was a prototypical Belichick Swiss Army Knife that could fill any role, thus he played almost every snap. I expect Kyle Van Noy to fill his spot for the most part, as he seems to have a very similar skill set with the ability to both get after the passer and drop into coverage. However, much like Edelman, Ninkovich cannot be replaced by one player.

The biggest question is who the Patriots can find to rush the passer opposite Flowers. Over the years the Patriots have had trouble finding secondary pass rushers to take some pressure off the top guy, whether it was Richard Seymour, Chandler Jones or in this case, Flowers. There’s been talk of Hightower getting significant playing time on the edge to fill that gap, but that would leave a big hole in the middle of the defense.

The Pats added veteran linebacker David Harris who is a very experienced, talented middle linebacker, but at 33 years old he’s lost a step or two. He cannot be counted on to play a lot of snaps at his age. That leaves a few openings at linebacker that guys like Elandon Roberts and Harvey Langi will have to step into and make an impact.

In a pass-happy league, the Patriots certainly have their priorities straight in strengthening the secondary. However, if the front seven can’t stop the run, and can’t get after the quarterback, the secondary will be hung out to dry. It will be very interesting to see if some of the younger players on defense are able to make the leap and be effective at the NFL level. If they can’t, the Patriots could end up giving up a lot of points.

 

PREDICTION 

Things look pretty good for the Patriots this year, for a number of reasons. Even if the defense does give up a lot of points, the offense should be equipped to score with just about anybody in the league. They will be absolutely impossible to game-plan for and match up with given the depth of talent at the running back position with guys that can run precise routes and catch like receivers. I expect the success of the Patriots to revolve around that core of running backs, coupled with big seasons out of Cooks and Gronkowski.

The other thing the Patriots have going for them is a weak conference. There are really only two other teams that pose a threat to the Patriots in the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Oakland Raiders. We know that Patriots have had great success against Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, and the Raiders are likely too young and inexperienced to win a playoff game in Foxboro. I expect the Patriots to finish 13-3 as the top seed in the AFC. As for the playoffs, I’ll get to those predictions when the time comes, because a lot can happen over the course of 16 games.

A Tale of Two Quarterbacks: Super Bowl LI Preview

Tom Brady and Matt Ryan both led high-flying offenses that systematically destroyed opposing defenses all season. Those performances led them to a meeting on football’s biggest stage: the Super Bowl. How the two ended up where they are now, however, couldn’t be much different.

Going all the way back to their draft positions, Ryan and Brady have experienced the NFL in very different ways. Ryan was drafted 3rd overall in 2008 to be the franchise quarterback of a reeling Atlanta Falcons team. He was an All-American quarterback at Boston College, leading them to an ACC title in 2008, breaking all of Doug Flutie’s BC records along the way.

In Atlanta he was named the starter as a rookie, and has started all 16 games for them in every season except for one. In those nine years, he has thrown for over 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns in eight of them, exceeding 4000 yards six times. Despite his regular season success however, Ryan has always been labeled as someone who can’t win in the playoffs.

Before this season, Ryan’s Falcons had reached the playoffs four times, losing in the first round three of those years. He finally won his first playoff game in 2012, defeating the Seahawks in the divisional round, but they lost to the 49ers the following week.

Tom Brady’s career has obviously been quite different. Drafted at the end of the 6th round in 2000, pick number 199, Brady had to battle his way onto the Patriots roster as the fourth quarterback. By 2001 he had worked his way to number two on the quarterback depth chart behind Drew Bledsoe. When Bledsoe was injured two games into the season, Brady was thrust into the starting role.

He responded by leading the Patriots to three Super Bowl titles in his first four years as a starter, labeling him as an ultimate clutch quarterback from the very beginning. He’s put together the greatest postseason résumé of any quarterback in NFL history with 24 wins, eight more than second place in that category.

While Ryan and Brady have very different career paths, they’re both elite quarterbacks capable of dominating a game. Both have done exactly that this season, with the Falcons offense ranked 1st in scoring and the Patriots ranked 3rd. The story of this Super Bowl will come down to which defense can slow the opposing quarterback down.

The Matchup

Stopping the NFL’s best offense in a given season is never an easy task. Bill Belichick is known for taking away his opponents best player, and making the other team beat him with secondary options. While Julio Jones is obviously the top offensive weapon on the Falcons, taking him out of the game hardly makes them less explosive. In fact, in games when he’s been limited to fewer than 100 yards, the Falcons are 9-1 (including two games he was inactive) and when he exceeded 100 yards they went 4-4. Clearly, shutting down Julio doesn’t necessarily lead to beating the Falcons.

What I expect to see from the Patriots is a game plan we saw years ago, when they faced another top offense in the NFL. It came against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in 2013 at Gillette Stadium. The Broncos were a dominant offense primarily based around the passing game, but they ran the ball well too. Belichick decided to take away the passing game by playing two deep safeties all game, with at least three cornerbacks.

That defensive look was a favorable one for Manning to check into running plays, which he did, all night long. The result was a 224-yard performance on 37 carries from Knowshon Moreno. He gobbled up yards and even found the end zone once. But the Patriots still won the game 34-31 because the Broncos were unable to finish some of their second half drives, while the Patriots just kept scoring.

I would not be surprised to see Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman rack up the rushing yards because Belichick decides to commit to stopping the air attack. The Falcons are too talented and diverse offensively for the Patriots to completely shut them down, so they’ll have to pick their poison, and Belichick would always prefer his team give up small chunks of yardage on the ground and not big plays through the air.

Another key for Patriots defense will be tackling. It sounds simple, but the Falcons are a team that was on top of the league in yards after the catch, so bringing the receivers and running backs to the ground after they’ve made a catch will be instrumental to winning the game. Luckily the Patriots have some the best tackling cornerbacks and safeties in the NFL, and they will play a huge role in limiting yards after the catch.

Lastly, getting pressure on Matt Ryan has to be a priority for the Patriots. The weakness of the Falcons offensive line is at the guard positions, so expect to see Dont’a Hightower blitzing up the A gap while Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown eat up double-teams. The Philadelphia Eagles did a very good job of getting pressure up the middle, moving Ryan off his spot, and throwing off the timing for the Falcons offense. Have no doubt that Belichick has studied that game film and plans on exploiting the very same weakness.

Offensively the Patriots have less to worry about. While the Falcons defense has been playing better over their last six games, they’re still not a very strong defense. As long as the line can hold the NFL’s sack leader, Vic Beasley, from getting to Brady, the Patriots should be able to move the ball efficiently.

I expect to see LeGarrette Blount pound the ball early and often for a couple of reasons. The first, and most obvious, is that the Falcons are not very strong up front, and are fairly soft against the running game. The second is that the more the Patriots run the ball, the more they run the clock, keeping Ryan, Jones, and Freeman on the bench. When the Eagles beat the Falcons in the regular season, they held possession for nearly two-thirds of the game. If the Patriots can get Blount going early, they could produce a similar result.

The ultimate key to winning this Super Bowl for the Patriots will be a fast start on both sides of the ball. The Patriots and Falcons ranked number one and two in first-quarter scoring differential this season, so both teams like playing with the lead. The Falcons have scored on their opening possession for eight straight games, and they use that fast start to build confidence and demoralize defenses. It is imperative that the Patriots open the game with a couple of stops, to plant the seed of doubt in an offense that hasn’t faced any significant resistance for weeks. The Falcons don’t have a lot of Super Bowl experience, and making them doubt themselves early could be magnified by the significance of the game.

My Prediction: I predict that this will be a tight game from start to finish that will simply be decided by who makes fewer mistakes. Whether it’s turnovers, blown coverage, penalties, or missed tackles, the team that makes the mistakes will lose. Given that none of the stars on the Falcons have ever played on this stage, I think they’ll be the sloppier team. The Patriots are poised, experienced and not blinded by the bright lights of the big stage. Tom Brady and the Patriots will collect their 5th Super Bowl ring, defeating the Falcons 31-24

One for the Record Books

February 3^rd, 2002. February 1^st, 2004. February 6^th, 2005. February 3^rd, 2008. February 5^th, 2012. February 1^st, 2015. February 5^th, 2017.

There’s only one quarterback in NFL history to take the field seven times in February: Tom Brady. There’s only one head coach in NFL history to put on his headset and call seven games in February: Bill Belichick. What we are witnessing is the greatest coach-player combination in the history of the NFL, and possibly all of sports.

With a 36-17 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday night’s AFC Championship Game, the New England Patriots earned a place in the franchise’s ninth Super Bowl, the most of any franchise in league history. That record is impressive on its own, but when you consider seven of those Super Bowl appearances occurred in the 21^st century, in the Salary Cap Era, it’s simply miraculous.

In a league that boasts about its parity, designed so that the worst teams have every advantage to get better, and the best teams are set up to regress to the middle, the New England Patriots have been a constant pillar of excellence. They’ve now reached the Super Bowl four more times than any other NFL franchise since the turn of the century, won that game two more times than anyone else, and been to five more conference championship games than the next closest team. That’s pure dominance in an era that is supposed to prevent a team from being dominant.

The question at this point becomes how? I believe there’s only one man on the planet that knows the answer to that question, and it is Bill Belichick. His unsentimental attitude of always running the New England Patriots as a business has allowed them to come in under the salary cap year after year while still being an elite team. He never has the most individually talented players in the league, but instead finds less expensive alternatives that fill a specific role or need for his team, without necessarily being the most gifted athletes.

On top of that, he signs and drafts brains and versatility over strength and speed. It allows his players on either side of the ball to read and react to what the other team is doing, instead of just telling his players to “go out there and beat your man”. He finds players off another team’s scrap heap, picks the one or two things they do extremely well, and doesn’t ask them to do anything else. Just ask Chris Hogan, Dion Lewis, Jabaal Sheard, Alan Branch, or a whole host of current and former Patriots players that other teams cut or otherwise wanted to be rid of. He builds his schemes around his players and their best set of skills, instead of asking his players to fit his schemes like most other coaches around the league.

Of course, his best asset has been Tom Brady, the best quarterback in NFL history, who repeatedly takes team-friendly contracts that get him paid in guaranteed money, but don’t incur a high salary cap hit so that Belichick can spend more money elsewhere. The quarterback who has been to the most Super Bowls in league history, and had a near MVP season despite missing the first four games, ranks 11^th in average annual salary among QBs in the league.

It’s that kind of commitment to winning from Brady, and Belichick’s creativity in writing contracts, that keep the Patriots under the salary cap year after year, while consistently being one of the best four or five teams in the NFL. Both men are now one win away from a fifth Super Bowl ring, ground that no other coach or quarterback has ever walked on. It won’t come easy, as they’ll have to top one of the highest scoring offenses in league history in the Atlanta Falcons, but I’ll get into the details of the matchup next week.

For now, we as fans should appreciate every moment, because we are enjoying a run that no one will likely ever see again, in the NFL or any other professional sport. A run of greatness, we must remind ourselves, that won’t last forever.

A Clash of NFL Royalty

For the sixth consecutive season, the New England Patriots are headed to the AFC Championship game. Tom Brady has now been one of the last four quarterbacks standing an astounding 11 times in his 15 seasons as a starter. Of his previous 10 appearances he’s managed to win six of them and move on to the Super Bowl.

Let me put those numbers into a little bit of perspective. Brady has the most conference championship wins by a quarterback with six, one ahead of John Elway, and two ahead of Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, and Jim Kelly. Joe Montana appeared in seven conference championships, the second-most in league history, a whopping four short of Brady. That type of dominance is unheard of in the NFL, especially when you consider all of it has been accomplished in a 16-year span. Simply put, the Patriots have been the best, and most consistent team in the NFL for almost two decades.

On Sunday night in Foxborough the Pats will play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers, another team very familiar with success. In this span of dominance, the Steelers have been the next best team, thanks in large part to the consistency of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who entered the league in 2004. Since the Patriots run of greatness began in 2001, the Steelers have won two Super Bowls and three AFC Championship games. It’s nowhere near the Patriots, but it’s the second best.

The Seahawks are the only other team to appear in three Super Bowls, but they lost two of them (to the Patriots and Steelers), and were a bottom-dwelling team for years prior to Russell Wilson’s arrival. The Giants have also won two Super Bowls in that span, but failed to even make the playoffs in several years in between and since. That leaves just the Steelers and Patriots as the consistent top-teams in the NFL for the past decade and a half, and they’ll square off once more in an AFC Championship so that one them can further their legacy as NFL royalty.

The Matchup

History and legacy is one thing, but none of it matters once the ball is on the tee for the opening kickoff, so let’s dive into the details of the matchup.

Both teams are fairly similar in the way that they are constructed. They play offense at an elite level, and employ the bend-but-don’t-break strategy on defense. But that’s where the similarities end. On offense the Patriots are built to spread the wealth. They get all three running backs involved in both the passing game and running game. Through the air, Julian Edelman get’s the lion’s share, with 98 receptions, but seven players finished the season with 23 or more receptions.

The Steelers stand in stark contrast to that, with only four players surpassing 23 receptions. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell get the majority of the touches on that offense, and for good reason: they’re both in the top-5 at their position in the entire league. Bell and Brown combined for 445 of the team’s 788 rushes or receptions. That’s 57% of the entire offense that went to Bell or Brown, with only 43% left for the other 15 players that ran or caught the ball this year. That’s simply mind-blowing especially when you consider Bell missed the first three games due to suspension, and another due to injury. It’s not hard to imagine that had he played a full season, he and Brown could have carried 70% or more of the offense.

So what’s the key for the Patriots defense? Obviously it’s keeping those two guys contained. It seems simple, but it’s a lot harder than it sounds, given that they are two of the most gifted athletes on the planet. Brown is the best route-runner in the league, possibly ever, and consistently shakes coverage with sharp cuts and explosive quickness. I expect to see him in a lot of coverage with Malcolm Butler shading underneath, with a safety over the top to contain him from going down the field. In other words, he’ll be double-covered all day long, with one of them being Butler. Butler is the only Patriots cornerback athletic enough to keep up with Brown.

Bell is essentially every coach’s dream as a running back. He can pound it physically up the middle, break it outside with speed, and run routes and catch passes like a receiver. He’ll be the real key to slowing the Steelers down, because they simply don’t have the secondary receivers to take advantage of the Patriots in the passing game. Bell has 59 carries for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff games this year, to just 49 passing attempts and 33 completions for Ben Roethlisberger. If they can frustrate Bell, and keep his yards-per-carry around four or below, they’ll force Roethlisberger to air the ball out to sub-par receiving options.

While the Steelers aren’t the “Greatest Show On Turf” like the 2001 Rams, I expect to see a very similar game plan out of Bill Belichick’s defense. In Super Bowl XXXVI against the Rams, Belichick decided that Marshall Faulk was the key to their offense, and game-planned to make sure somebody was all over Faulk on every play. I will not be surprised to see Belichick make a similar assessment with Bell, seeing has he is an elite running back, and their second-leading receiver this season.

Another key for the Patriots defense is to get after Roethlisberger. Since his knee procedure halfway through the season, he has been a statue in pocket with his mobility severely limited. If they can stop Bell on the early downs and get Big Ben into third & long situations, they’ll have the opportunity to get him to the ground, or rush his throws and turn the ball over. He threw 13 interceptions in the regular season and another two in the postseason, so he’s prone to giving the ball away.

As for the offense the game plan is fairly simple, though it will be different than against the Texans. Against Houston the Patriots exploited the slow linebackers by throwing early and often to Dion Lewis and James White out of the backfield. The Steelers have arguably the fastest linebacking core in the NFL, so that strategy won’t work as well. What the Steelers boast in speed, they give up in size, so this will be a good week to pound LeGarrette Blount up the middle to set the tone and keep the ball away from the Steelers.

Additionally, the weakness of Pittsburgh’s defense is in their secondary. They haven’t found an identity in the defensive backfield since the retirements of Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu, and it will be up to the Patriots receivers to exploit that weakness. That could be hard given that the health of Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Martellus Bennett and Danny Amendola is in doubt, but if a couple of those guys can be at 100%, along with Julian Edelman, they’ll be able to take advantage of a weak secondary unit.

My Prediction:

These two teams are very evenly matched, equally calm in the spotlight, and led by elite, veteran quarterbacks. The deciding factor in this game could very well be coaching. I have a lot more faith in Belichick’s ability to game-plan a way to limit Brown and Bell than I do in Mike Tomlin to game-plan a way to frustrate Tom Brady. For that reason I’m picking the Patriots in a tight one, 31-24, and heading to Super Bowl LI

Bonus Prediction:

Who will the Patriots face in the Super Bowl you ask? It’s time to stop sleeping on the Atlanta Falcons. The Dallas Cowboys captured our attention in the regular season, and Aaron Rodgers has been eye-popping in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Falcons have quietly put together a multi-faceted, deep and devastating offense that has yet to be stopped or even slowed down. The Packers certainly don’t have the defense to keep Matt Ryan, Julio Jones & Co. from dropping 40 points, so Rodgers’ magic runs out in Atlanta. Falcons 44 Packers 34.