Super Sunday

It’s that terrible time of year again. The two weeks between the conference championship games and Super Bowl Sunday. It’s always a circus, with every sports media outlet in the country previewing one game for two straight weeks. Now, finally, the excitement for the game begins to build as February 1st creeps closer and closer. It’s Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona between the league’s two best teams: the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. Let’s dig in.

Both teams come into the game having won their conference both in the regular season and in the post season. The Seahawks needed two touchdowns in the final two minutes of regulation before an overtime touchdown to squeeze past the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots, on the other hand, dominated the Indianapolis Colts for the fourth consecutive time, by a score of 45-7. Tom Brady and company executed to near perfection, accumulating 397 yards of offense and turning the ball over just once on an underthrow from Brady. The Seahawks, interestingly, also accumulated 397 yards of offense, but they struggled to hold on to the football with Russell Wilson chucking up four interceptions and Doug Baldwin coughing up a fumble. They needed a touchdown pass from their punter on a fake field goal and a dropped onside kick by Packers’ tight end Brian Bostick just to have a chance in the game, before getting even more luck (Packers’ safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix spacing out on the 2-point conversion and then the coin toss in overtime) to win.

Defensively, both teams were impressive. The Patriots allowed the Colts to pick up just 209 yards and one touchdown while forcing three turnovers and out-possessing the Colts by over 15 minutes. The Seahawks weren’t as good on paper, giving up over 300 yards and 19 points, but considering that their offense turned the ball over five times, it was a sound performance. They made two goal line stops in the 1st quarter, forcing the Packers to kick field goals. They held the Packers to just three third-down conversions on 14 attempts and made Aaron Rodgers look simply average with a completion percentage of 55.9 for 178 yards, two interceptions, and just one touchdown. One thing is very clear about the Seahawks’ defense: nothing comes easily. But the past is the past. Both teams won and moved on to the Super Bowl, and how they got here really doesn’t matter anymore. So let’s dive into the matchups.

Seahawks Defense vs. Patriots Offense

This is obviously the marquee matchup of the Super Bowl. It’s the Legion of Boom and the league’s most feared defense against one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history. The Seahawks defense will easily be the toughest that the Patriots have faced all year, simply because they might be the best pass defense this league has ever seen. They have the best safety tandem in the league with Earl Thomas running the show from the free safety position and Kam Chancellor as a booming strong safety. They also boast one of the best cornerbacks in the game with Richard Sherman locking down the left side of the defense. Their linebackers can also cover well due to great size and athleticism. They’ve made a living as a unit by making elite quarterbacks look average, or flat out awful. Just ask Peyton Manning.

So how will the Patriots deal with this issue? Well the simple answer is to run the football. The Packers were able to gain 135 yards on the ground against the Seahawks, and other teams have also been somewhat successful in the running game. Of course, it’s really just picking the lesser of two evils. The Seahawks ranked third in rushing defense this season, and first in defending the pass. So what happens if the Seahawks can bottle up the Patriots’ mediocre running game? To be honest I’m not sure. I’m expecting to see some offensive formations from the Patriots that we haven’t seen much of this season. I imagine they will stack and bunch their receivers to make it harder for the physical Seattle corners to get their hands on the receivers at the line of scrimmage.

I anticipate the Seahawks will try to cover Rob Gronkowski with a combination of their big, athletic outside linebackers and Chancellor. For that reason, I expect the Patriots to split Gronkowski out wide a fair bit, especially to the left side where he would match up with Byron Maxwell. At 6’1” 207 lbs., Maxwell is big for a corner, but he still gives up five-plus inches and 60 pounds to the dinosaur we call Gronk. There’s no one man in the NFL that can cover Gronkowski, but if any team can figure out a way to do it, it’s the Seahawks. This game will also be a big test for guys like Danny Amendola and Tim Wright, who draw less attention from opposing defenses, and might be relied upon to get open while the Seahawks blanket Gronk, Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell.

I also expect to see some screen passes thrown towards Sherman’s side of the field early on in the game to see if he can tackle. Anyone who watched the NFC Championship game saw Sherman clutching his elbow tight to his body in the fourth quarter and essentially playing with one arm. If that arm is still bothering him, he could have trouble wrapping up. The Patriots secret weapon in this game, I predict, will be Shane Vereen. We’ve seen the elusive back be a major factor in the passing game in big games before, and he could once again be the guy that slips under the Seahawks’ radar and has a monster game. The Seahawks’ defense is no doubt the best in the league, but I have faith in Brady, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels to come up with a way to move the football by using unusual formations and designing plays for guys that don’t draw as much attention from the defense.

Patriots Defense vs. Seahawks Offense

This matchup is the aspect of the game where the Patriots have an advantage. The Seahawks offense is built around the running game, specifically Marshawn Lynch, with Wilson doing just enough passing to keep the defense honest. They seriously lack weapons in the passing game, with Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse at wide receiver and Luke Willson at tight end. These are guys that the Patriots can lock down in man coverage, with a little help from Devon McCourty to keep from getting burned on the deep ball. The Patriots, therefore, should plan man coverage across the field, with McCourty in is his usual centerfield spot, and leave everyone else in the box to stop the run.

Belichick is well known for doing everything he can to take away what the other team’s offense does best, and making them beat his defenses with an aspect of their game that they are less comfortable with. If Belichick can slow down Lynch, and make Wilson try to win the game with his arm, the Patriots will win. It’s that simple. Wilson is, in my mind, one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league. That’s not to say he’s not good, but the idea of him being in the same league as Brady, Rodgers, or Manning is preposterous. He has all the intangibles: leadership, intelligence and the “clutch gene.” He’s well known for fourth quarter comebacks and brilliant throws on the run. What gets over looked, however, is how little he actually has to do for his team to win.

Thanks to that running game and stellar defense, he really isn’t asked to do much as a quarterback. Just look at the NFC Championship game. He did everything he could to lose that game for his team, throwing four interceptions. Yet his defense bailed him out with two goal line stops and two turnovers of their own. Without those, there would have been no opportunity for a fourth quarter comeback. He ranked 19th in the league this season in passing attempts, averaging just over 28 attempts per game. He’s not at all accustomed to dropping back to pass 40 or more times. If the Patriots can make the Seahawks give up on the running game, Wilson won’t beat them with his arm.

Of course stopping the run is easier said than done, especially for the Patriots leaky run defense. We saw what happened to them when the Ravens decided to run the football, and had it not been for the offense putting up so many points to force the Ravens to keep passing, the Patriots would be on their couches watching this game. That’s why they need to sell out on the run. Everyone that is not in man coverage, or McCourty, should be in the box, with Lynch in his crosshairs. Guys other than Vince Wilfork need to step up, as Wilfork will likely be doubled all game. I have every confidence that if the Patriots can stop Lynch, they will win the game.

Prediction: I hate everything about having to play the Seahawks. They are every bit as good as they’re cracked up to be on defense, and have the full ability to significantly slow down Brady’s offense. That’s why this game comes down to defense. This will be a low scoring slugfest. Both teams will commit to the running game early on, and won’t relinquish unless the other team builds a significant lead. That won’t happen though, as this will be a tight game throughout. I expect this game to be determined by a fourth quarter turnover. I’ve been saying that this Patriots’ squad was a Super Bowl team since the very beginning of the season, and I’ll stand by it one more time: I’ve got the Patriots 24-23.

Kings of the AFC

After a 45-7 romping of the Indianapolis Colts in Sunday’s AFC Championship game, the New England Patriots made clear once again something we’ve known for over a decade now: they are the kings of the AFC. This marks their sixth AFC title since the 2001 season, and it was the team’s ninth appearance in the title game in that span. Tom Brady has been at the helm for all of those seasons, and next Sunday he will become the first quarterback, and just the second player, to appear in six Super Bowls. He’s now 6-3 in AFC Championship games and 3-2 in Super Bowls, pending next week’s outcome. There will be plenty of time to preview an incredibly difficult matchup with the Seattle Seahawks next week, but for now let’s enjoy the moment.

There are three men that have been constants in the Patriots’ organization during this historic run since the turn of the century, and I give them all the credit for the success. Those men are Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. I can’t say enough about what Kraft has done for this franchise since he purchased it in 1994. His most important contribution, a little known fact about Kraft’s ownership, was saving the team from moving to another city. In 1988, Kraft purchased Foxboro Stadium (or Sullivan Stadium) out of bankruptcy court, and with it, the stadium’s lease to the Patriots. When a St. Louis businessman, James Orthwein, purchased the cellar-dwelling team in 1992, rumors of the team being moved to St. Louis became rampant. In 1994, Orthwein offered Kraft $75 million to buy out the remainder of the team’s lease with the stadium, freeing him to move them to St. Louis. Kraft refused to see his hometown team leave, so he rejected the offer, and counter-offered a league record (at the time) $175 million to buy the team outright. Had Kraft accepted the $75 million, we’d probably be stuck rooting for some expansion team that came to the Boston area the way the Texans did in Houston, or worse, the way the Jaguars did in Jacksonville.

Instead, the people of New England thanked Kraft buy selling out Foxboro for every game in the ’94-’95 season for the first time in franchise history. Every single game (including preseason) since then has been a sellout under Kraft’s ownership. Beyond saving he team from moving, Kraft has been one of the best owners in football. He brought Patriots fans out of the metal-bleachers age by tearing down the decrepit Foxboro Stadium and built Gillette Stadium in its place, to go along with seemingly an entire town of shops and restaurants in Patriot Place. He never shies away from spending big money on top talent, and, most importantly, he stays out of football decisions, and instead leaves it to the experts he hires, unlike some NFL owners (*cough* Jerry Jones *cough* Woody Johnson *cough*). Who are those brilliant football minds he’s brought in during his tenure as owner, you ask? Oh, just the two head coaches who will square off in Super Bowl XLIX in Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick. Of course, Carroll didn’t work out in New England, but his replacement sure did.

Belichick is the man I give the most credit to for the success of the Patriots in the 21st century. He’s been the head coach and general manager of the team since he came aboard in 2000, and therefore has been in charge of all personnel decisions from hiring coordinators to choosing hid draft picks. What he’s proven throughout that time is that the coaching staff and front office around him don’t matter; he will always win. After winning his first Super Bowl as a head coach in the 2001 season, he had to say goodbye to both his offensive coordinator, Charlie Weiss, and his defensive coordinator, Romeo Crennel. It took him exactly one season to recover, as the Patriots were Super Bowl champs once again in 2003 and in 2004. Since then it’s been a revolving door of coordinators coming and going with the same end result: Belichick keeps winning while the people that leave his tutelage fail to succeed elsewhere (see: Weiss, Crennel, Eric Mangini and Josh McDaniels, just to name a few Belichick disciples to fail elsewhere).

Belichick is easily one of the greatest coaches in the history of the game. I’m no NFL historian, so I can’t say where he ranks, but he’s right up there with Don Shula, Bill Walsh and Vince Lombardi. Whenever he does decide to retire, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which he has become the undisputed greatest coach of all time. He has an astounding 195-73 record as the Patriots’ head coach, including a 20-8 record in the playoffs. His only losing season as a head coach in Foxboro came in his very first season with the team when they went 5-11. He responded the next season with an 11-5 team, won a Super Bowl and never looked back. His Patriots have missed the playoffs just twice since that first Super Bowl, once the following year and again in 2008 with Matt Cassel under center, becoming just the second team in league history to miss the playoffs with an 11-5 record. He’s been to nine conference championship games in 15 years at the helm of the Patriots organization, winning six of them. That means his team has finished as one of the top four teams in the league more often than not in his tenure as head coach. There simply isn’t a better coach in the league today.

And then there’s Tom Brady. If you read my post before last season’s playoffs, you already know where he ranks in my book. This season has only made his case to be labeled as the greatest of all time even stronger. First of all, no other quarterback in league history has won his conference title game six times. His record as a starting QB is an astronomical 179-55, giving him a .765 winning percentage, the highest of all time. In fact, Brady is the only quarterback in NFL history with 100 more wins than losses under his belt. He’s also the winningest playoff quarterback of all time. Most remarkably, however, is the fact that this is Brady’s sixth trip to the Super Bowl in 13 full seasons as a starting quarterback, meaning that he has reached the Super Bowl in almost half of the seasons he’s played. Going to a Super Bowl almost every other year is pretty ridiculous. It’s because of his play, Belichick’s coaching, and Kraft’s ownership that the Patriots have been the team to beat in the AFC since the turn of the century.

The job isn’t yet finished this year though, and the road ahead is tough. But if the Patriots are able to hoist the Lombardi trophy again, it will solidify them as one of the greatest dynasties in the history of sports. It would be the Patriots’ fourth Super Bowl victory in 14 years, to go along with the two other appearances in the big game. Brady would tie Joe Montana with four Super Bowl rings and likely earn the greatest of all time title in many people’s minds. Belichick would add a sixth ring to his collection and further make his case as the best to ever coach the game. Regardless of what happens in the Super Bowl, though, there is no debating who the best team in the AFC this century is: the New England Patriots. Crown ‘em.

Past vs. Future: The 2015 AFC Championship Game

On Sunday at 6:40pm, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts will trot on to the field at Gillette Stadium to take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots with a spot in Super Bowl XLIX on the line. It will be the AFC’s best quarterback over the past decade and a half facing off against the guy who is likely to be the AFC’s best quarterback for the next decade. The legend, Brady, versus the whiz kid, Luck. It will be a matchup between the quiet and unemotional mastermind that is Bill Belichick versus the charismatic, open book that is Chuck Pagano.

Both teams earned their spots in the championship game through very different, and somewhat surprising, results. The Colts thoroughly dominated the Denver Broncos by holding Peyton Manning’s offense to just one touchdown, winning by a final score of 24-13 in a game that never felt that close. The Patriots, on the other hand, fought back from a 14-0 first quarter deficit, and a 28-14 third quarter deficit, to win 35-31 in an absolute thriller over the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts’ defense looked positively stifling (though a lot of that was due to Peyton Manning’s severe case of noodle-arm) while the Patriots’ defense showed a striking resemblance to Swiss cheese.

I can’t overstate how bad New England’s defense looked on Saturday. They were consistently gashed up the middle in the running game and failed in coverage in almost every play in the first half. They gave up a total of 428 yards and 4 touchdowns, and without two terrible floaters from Flacco that turned into easy interceptions, it could have been much worse. Normally I give credit to a defense for forcing turnovers, but there is a big difference between a takeaway and a giveaway. Joe Flacco gift-wrapped those two interceptions. However, I have to give credit where credit is due; Gary Kubiak put together a brilliant offensive game plan for the Ravens.

Baltimore led the league in rushing attempts outside the tackles, with Justin Forsett taking the ball outside on over 70% of his carries. Against New England, however, they pounded the ball straight up the middle, knowing that the Patriots would be paying special attention to winning the edge battles, which they did for the most part. Kubiak also knew that Belichick often has his inside linebackers, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower, bump the other team’s tight end when he is running a shallow crossing route. Kubiak used that to his advantage, and often swung a back into the flat while his tight end, Owen Daniels, ran a shallow cross. Flacco would stare down Daniels until Collins or Hightower came down to bump him, then would throw to the flat, leaving the Patriots’ linebackers late in coverage. That exact play was the reason Forsett was so open on his touchdown reception, and the reason that fullback Kyle Juszczyk caught four passes for 29 yards, two for first downs. Little adjustments like that were what helped the Ravens move the ball so well, but the Patriots have to do a better job of making in-game adjustments.

Offensively, the Patriots were better. Despite a dismal game on the ground (14 yards on seven carries by running backs), they moved the ball well through the air, thanks to some trickery and a brilliant performance from Brady. I won’t say too much about the trickery, other than Julian Edelman’s bomb to Danny Amendola was the coolest play I’ve seen since 2001 when David Patton and Troy Brown pulled off the same stunt. The eligible-ineligible receiver formation that Jon Harbaugh felt the need to complain about was the definition of a “Belichickism.” The formation was deceitful, yes, but entirely legal. While it will probably be reviewed and outlawed in the offseason by the NFL, it was classic Belichick. He finds rules he can exploit, and takes advantage of them. It was nothing more than a legal formation that no one had thought to try in an up-tempo offense before. That’s what Belichick does.

Aside from all the trickery, this game was one of Brady’s finest playoff performances in recent memory. He was 33 of 50 for 367 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. While the interception was ugly, the rest of the game was brilliant. It becomes far more difficult to throw the ball when the other team virtually knows that you’re going to pass. Given that the Patriots didn’t hand the ball off a single time in the second half, the Ravens knew what was coming. It didn’t matter, however, as Brady repeatedly carved up the Ravens’ secondary. His touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell was one of the prettiest passes of his entire career, dropping it right in LaFell’s breadbasket, where he hardly even needed to look to catch it.

The Colts really couldn’t be a more different opponent than the Baltimore Ravens. While Baltimore was a run heavy team, the Colts hardly run the ball, but not by choice. They’ve struggled in the ground game for quite some time now, and losing Ahmad Bradshaw to a season-ending injury has left Dan Herron as their primary tailback. He is a decent back, but not one that strikes any sort of fear in a defense, and Indianapolis simply doesn’t block in the running game very well. Instead, the Colts’ offense lives and dies with the play of Andrew Luck. He ranked third in the league in passing attempts, but if you factor in his scrambles, nobody in the league dropped back to pass more than Luck.

His weapons through the air are fairly limited. They’re headlined by T.Y. Hilton, a young receiver who really emerged as a top-tier, speedy NFL pass catcher this season. The truly talented receivers end there, however. Reggie Wayne was once a stud, but his age has caught up to him. Rookie Donte Moncrief has also emerged as a speedy deep threat, but will pose no issues for the Patriots’ secondary. The last time these two teams played, tight end Coby Fleener had one of the best games of his career, and will likely be a go-to guy for Luck once again. If Revis can shut down Hilton, however, the Colts will struggle to score enough points to beat the Patriots. It will also be important to get pressure on Luck to disrupt his timing. Chandler Jones was the most disappointing Patriot last week, as he was completely invisible working against an undrafted rookie. He will need to step up his game and get after Luck. Also, expect to see Hightower and Collins to come on a handful of A-Gap (the middle of the line) blitzes in Luck’s face.

Defensively, the Ravens boasted a mean front seven and a very vulnerable secondary. The Colts are the opposite. The strength of their team is on the back end, and their defensive line leaves a lot to be desired. In the past two games against the Colts, the Patriots have racked up a combined 480 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns. Those numbers are astronomical for a two-game stretch, and there’s no reason to think that the Patriots won’t attack them on the ground again. Of course, you’d have to assume the Colts would be ready for that approach, but they’ve shown no ability to stop the Patriots’ running game in the past, even when they’ve known it was coming. Brady should also have no trouble finding Rob Gronkowski, as the Colts have no viable option to cover him. As long as Brady is careful when throwing in the direction of Vontae Davis, the Patriots should not have any trouble moving the ball against this Colts defense.

My Prediction: To be honest there’s nothing about this game on paper that worries me. While the Colts’ defense did look like it buckled down against the Broncos last weekend, they certainly weren’t facing a Peyton Manning that was firing on all cylinders. Tom Brady is. While Luck will make some jaw-dropping throws to be sure, he’s also almost guaranteed to turn the ball over once or twice. The only way I see the Colts stealing this game is the simple fact that nobody believes in them, and they have absolutely nothing to lose. They might as well throw everything they’ve got at the Patriots and see if they can win a wild one on some crazy bounces and timely turnovers. I don’t see it happening. The Colts will be a very good team for a very long time with Andrew Luck at the helm, but this is still Brady’s time. I’ve got the Patriots hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy In Gillette, this time by a score of 38-24.

Ravens Week

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2015 NFL playoffs have finally arrived in New England. After a meaningless Week-17 game and a Wild Card Weekend bye, the Patriots will host the sixth seeded Baltimore Ravens at 4:35 pm on Saturday, January 10th at Gillette Stadium. The Ravens come to Foxborough after upsetting their archrival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, on the road. The final score read 30-17, but the game was a lot closer than the score. They’ll now try to continue the upset streak by beating the Patriots in Foxborough in the playoffs, as they did in the 2009 and 2012 seasons. The Ravens looked good in their victory over the Steelers, though not nearly as good as the score line would indicate. They were actually out-possessed by nearly 11 minutes, holding the ball for just under 25 minutes while the Steelers held it for 35 minutes and change. The Ravens were out-gained 387-295 and ran 17 fewer plays on offense than the Steelers. How’d they win, you ask? Turnovers and sacks. They won the turnover battle 3-1 by intercepting Ben Roethlisberger twice and recovering Heath Miller’s fumble. They also managed to drag Big Ben down five times for a total of 37 yards. On the other side, the Steelers managed to recover one fumble and brought down Joe Flacco just one time. The Steelers weren’t able to get anything going on the ground without Bell, and the Ravens’ pass rushers took advantage of the Steelers pass-heavy game plan. The good news for the Patriots, however, is that without the two interceptions, Roethlisberger had a pretty good day throwing the football. He was 31 of 45 for 334 yards despite being under heavy pressure most of the night. It proved what we already knew about the Ravens: their secondary is very weak. Even though they got their top corner, Lardarius Webb, back from injury, he was victimized by Antonio Brown the tune of nine catches on 14 targets for 117 yards. They also struggled mightily to cover tight ends this season, and that was once again an issue against the Steelers, allowing Miller to haul in six passes for 76 yards. If Heath Miller can rack up 76 yards against this defense, Rob Gronkowski should have a field day. While the Ravens’ run defense can be stout, Tom Brady will be able to air the ball out in this game, and with all of his receivers healthy again, expect him to spread the ball around a lot to keep the Ravens’ defense from focusing on any one player. As long as the offensive line can keep Brady upright, the Patriots will have the potential to score a lot of points in this game. Defensively, the Patriots should be all set. Torrey Smith and Steve Smith Sr. don’t pose too much of a threat for Darelle Revis and Brandon Browner. While Smith Sr. was once a formidable receiver, his game has taken a step back, and he’s no longer the maniac that he was in Carolina. He does still have the unique ability to draw penalties by being an absolute pest, so if it were up to me, I’d keep Browner (leading the defense in penalties) away from him. That would leave Revis in a shut-down role against Smith Sr. while Browner could manhandle Torrey Smith, who gives up four inches and 20 lbs. to the behemoth of a cornerback. As long as Devon McCourty spends this game playing centerfield, not allowing Flacco to complete his patented deep ball, the Patriots will be able to limit the Ravens’ productivity through the air. The Ravens rushing attack, led by Justin Forsett, is their strength. Forsett ranked 5th in the league in yards, but was the top rusher in the league in terms of yards per carry (minimum of 60 carries) with 5.4. He runs in the zone-blocking scheme that offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak developed in his time as head coach of the Houston Texans. That scheme, of course, is the one that has helped Arian Foster to become one of the best running backs in the league. While the scheme can be formidable, Bill Belichick and his teams have had no trouble with Gary Kubiak’s offenses in the past. You only have to turn back to the 2013 divisional round (and my very first post on this blog) when the Patriots shellacked the Texans 41-28 just five weeks after beating them 42-14 on Monday Night Football. Kubiak will have to get more creative with his offense if he wants to move the ball against the Patriots. My Prediction: It is my firm belief that the Ravens have the second-best coaching staff in the AFC (behind the Pats, obviously) with John Harbaugh at the reins supported by Kubiak on offense and former Patriots’ defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Without those guys, I’d say the Patriots would run away with this one. The Patriots are simply the better football team. I predict that Chandler Jones will have his breakout performance with three sacks in the game working against a weak combination at left tackle for the Ravens of Eugene Monroe and James Hurst. If he wants to take the next step to be considered an elite pass rusher, he needs to capitalize on favorable matchups in big moments. I do believe that the Ravens’ coaching staff will come up with a good game plan, but it won’t be enough. The Pats’ defense will smother the Ravens while Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski put up monster numbers on the other side of the ball. #87 is healthy in the playoffs for the first time, and he’s ready to feast. I’ve got the Patriots in a no-doubter, 34-17.   Since I got the Steelers pick wrong, I will update my prediction to a Broncos-Patriots AFC Championship game, with the Patriozts going through to the Super Bowl. Andrew Luck and the Colts still don’t have quite what it takes to steal one in Denver. I’m still sticking with Tony Romo and the Cowboys to come out of the NFC, and while I won’t go so far as to predict this outcome, the Panthers match up favorably with the Seahawks, and could very possibly steal one from the defending champs.

AFC’s Finest

The NFL regular season wrapped up on Sunday with the Patriots losing an ugly game to the Buffalo Bills, 17-9. Of course, the game didn’t matter in the slightest, as the Pats had locked up the top seed in the AFC the previous week. The meaninglessness of the game meant guys like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Browner and Sebastian Vollmer never suited up while Tom Brady and Darelle Revis didn’t head back onto the field after halftime. This was by all means a “don’t get injured” game for the Patriots, and they played like it. Of course Bill Belichick being Bill Belichick meant that he didn’t want to put anything on film that another team would find useful, so the Patriots ran the most basic schemes on both offense and defense that I’ve seen since preseason. All in all it was a boring, meaningless game that needs no further analysis.

The Patriots earned the right to play a boring and meaningless game in week 17 by being the most dominant team in the AFC and guaranteeing themselves home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by week 16. Though their record reads the same as the Denver Broncos, a head-to-head beat down delivered by the Pats in November served as the tiebreaker. The Patriots were indisputably the best team in the AFC this season and the standings show it. For the rest of the conference, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough.

The Pats seem to be in a good position heading into their first-round bye. They’ve already blown out three of the five other playoff teams in the AFC while their win over the Detroit Lions and loss to the Green Bay Packers leave them with a 4-1 record against playoff teams this season. They’ve stayed remarkably healthy, losing only one starter, Jerod Mayo, to a season-ending injury. There is a little bit of concern for Brandon LaFell who injured himself in week 17 and missed practice this week, but the bye week should give him enough time to get healthy. In the rest of this post, I will examine how the Patriots match up against each of the other playoff teams in the AFC as well as make my playoff predictions.

Baltimore Ravens

I’ll start with the sixth-seeded Ravens, as they are the lowest seed and would automatically head to Foxborough if they win, regardless of the other game’s result. The Ravens had an up and down season this year, and find themselves as the sixth seed due to a poor divisional record with two losses to the Bengals and one to the Steelers. There isn’t anything too special about this team. Rookie running back Justin Forsett was a pleasant surprise for the Ravens in the place of the suspended Ray Rice, as he led the league among starting running backs with 5.1 yards per carry and ranked fifth in total rushing yards with 1,266 yards. Through the air, Flacco was his usual good-but-not-great self, throwing for 3,986 yards with a 62% completion percentage. Overall, the Ravens’ offense ranked 12th in the league.

Though defense is traditionally their strength, the Ravens struggled mightily to defend against the pass the season. They ranked 24th in the league in overall pass defense thanks to a group of no-name players in the secondary. This is where the Patriots would be able to victimize Ravens, and likely run up the score. They would have no way of matching up with Gronkowski, Edelman and LaFell, and if the offensive line could hold, Brady would pick them apart. The only reason to be afraid of the Ravens is that they’ve got a lot of veterans that know how to win in the playoffs, and they’ve beaten the Patriots in the playoffs in Foxborough in 2009 and 2012. If recent history is any indication, a Patriots-Ravens matchup would be a tight, gritty game. John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league, and always finds a way to create trouble for Belichick and Brady. I still like the Patriots in this matchup, however. They are simply a better football team, top to bottom.

Cincinnati Bengals

No need to spend too much time on this one. The Bengals came in to Foxborough in week 5 regarded as the best team in the league after a hot start and got dismantled by the Pats on Sunday Night Football 43-17. Quarterback Andy Dalton (0-3) and head coach Marvin Lewis (0-5) are both without a playoff win in their careers, and there’s no reason to think that streak will be broken this year. In week 17, they needed to win in Pittsburgh to win the division and play at home on Wild Card Weekend, but predictably lost, 27-17, and will instead have to travel to Indianapolis. Even if the duo manages their first playoff win against the Colts, they are no match for the Patriots, as they proved in week 5.

Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of the Colts, here’s another team the Patriots blew out in the regular season. In week 11 the Pats travelled to Indianapolis and shredded the Colts on the ground, eventually winning 42-20. Jonas Gray ran his way on to the cover of Sports Illustrated with his 201-yard, four-touchdown performance in the game. While the numbers show up next to his name, I’m not sure that I couldn’t have run for a buck fifty with the way the Patriots’ offensive line was blocking. They man-handled the Colts’ defensive front and Gray just ran into the holes, often not seeing any contact until five to eight yards down the field. The Colts defense simply can’t stop the run and their pass defense isn’t much better.

Offensively, they can be dangerous, but only through the air. They are the definition of a one-dimensional offense, ranking first in the league in passing and 22nd in rushing. Andrew Luck is prone to throwing interceptions, but he’s also capable of completely dominating a game. If Dwayne Allen and T.Y. Hilton get healthy, they will return to being a high-flying offense, unlike in recent weeks with those two absent. However, their defense simply isn’t good enough, and in the last three meetings between the two teams, the Patriots have won by a combined score of 144-66. Chuck Pagano has a long way to go as a coach to figure out how to beat a Belichick defense and a Tom Brady offense; this matchup would go easily to the Patriots.

Denver Broncos

To continue the trend of teams that the Patriots blew out this season, we move to the Broncos. In week nine the 6-1 Broncos travelled to Foxborough for what many expected to be a tightly contested game. Instead the Patriots jumped to a 27-7 halftime lead and coasted in the second half to a 43-21 win. The Broncos were never really in the game, being thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball. While they once looked formidable, the Broncos have been floundering of late, especially Peyton Manning. He’s thrown just three touchdowns and six interceptions in his last four games, only reaching 300 yards once in that span. His arm strength seems entirely absent, and whether he’s hurt or just showing his age, his passes are just fluttering to receivers.

Despite Manning’s struggles, the Broncos have managed to eek out wins in three of those four weeks, thanks in large part to the emergence of running back C.J. Anderson (and a relatively soft schedule). He found the end zone seven times in that four game span, though he failed to reach 100 yards on the ground in any of those games. This is certainly not the record-setting offense of last year, though their defense is improved. The idea of Peyton Manning throwing those wobbly ducks on a cold windy night in Foxborough is a delicious thought for a Patriots fan. There’s no way Manning and the Broncos can march in to Gillette Stadium and expect to take an AFC Championship game from the Pats. Manning’s game is fading. Rapidly.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Lastly, I want to talk about the team I think the Patriots are most likely to see in the AFC Championship game. The Steelers have easily been the league’s most befuddling team. Four of their five losses have come to miserable teams (Buccaneers, Browns, Saints, Jets) with their fifth loss coming at the hands of the Ravens. On the other hand, they’ve beaten the Bengals twice, and blown out the Colts and Ravens. In one of the rarest ties of all time, Ben Roethlisberger finished the season tied with Drew Brees for the league lead in passing yards with 4,952 yards. His favorite weapon, Antonio Brown, also happened to lead the league in receiving with 129 receptions for 1,698 yards. On the ground Le’Veon Bell ranked second in the league in rushing with 1,361 yards and added 83 catches for 854 yards. He is quickly budding into the best all-purpose back in the NFL.

With those three weapons, the Steelers’ offense is extremely dangerous. On defense, they are a lot less scary. They ranked 18th in the league in total defense this season, and really lack the size, speed and physicality that made them such an intimidating team in years past. The Patriots wouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball against their defense, and if Revis could shut down Brown, they’d likely be able to put together a win. What worries me about the Steelers is simply that they’ve been there before. They’re a battle-tested team that knows how to make deep runs into the playoffs, and they’re not particularly intimidated by having to play on the road. Roethlisberger might be the league’s most underrated quarterback in the league after a few rough seasons, but he’s still a two-time Super Bowl champion.

Playoff Predictions:

I think Pittsburgh and Indianapolis will both take care of business at home on Wild Card Weekend, sending the Steelers to Denver and the Colts to Foxborough. In the Divisional Round the Patriots will once again handle Luck and the Colts in a lopsided affair. The Steelers and Broncos will play a tightly contested game in Denver, but Manning’s days are numbered, and he won’t have enough arm to outscore Brown, Bell and the Steelers. That would set up the Patriots hosting the Steelers in the AFC Championship game, where Revis will hold Brown in check and the Pats will score enough to make the Steelers’ running game irrelevant. That will send Tom Brady to his sixth Super Bowl against . . . the Dallas Cowboys.

That’s right, I’m picking Tony Romo and “America’s team” to come out of the NFC. It’s hard for me to fathom why nobody believes in the Cowboys, simply because Romo doesn’t have a good track record in the playoffs. The truth is, the Cowboys don’t need Romo to be spectacular to win. They have the league’s best rushing attack with DeMarco Murray running for almost 500 more yards this season than anybody else. They have indisputably the best offensive line in the NFL and Dez Bryant has been an absolute beast catching the football this season. They’re 8-0 on the road, including a win in Seattle, which they would probably have to do again to make the Super Bowl. They’ve clobbered other good teams this season like the Eagles in Philadelphia and the Colts at home in recent weeks. They’ll take care of business against the Lions before heading to Lambeau Field and running over the porous run-defense of the Packers. Then they’ll beat an overrated Seattle team in Seattle, again, and head to Arizona for the Super Bowl against the Patriots. I’ll leave my prediction for that game until we get there.