Finding Their Identity

I apologize for the missed week, schoolwork and vacation got in the way. So here’s two weeks of Patriots’ thoughts to make up for it.

I’m not sure how many times in Tom Brady’s career we’ve been able to say the offense struggled. There have been plenty of times when the opposing defense clearly outplayed Brady and his offense, but I can’t remember a time when the offense looked flat out bad. That was the case last Sunday in Cincinnati. Nothing was working for the Patriots’ offense. Seriously nothing. They amassed only 248 yards on offense, 166 through the air and 82 on the ground. Brady himself had some awful numbers going 18-for-38 with an interception. I will add the disclaimer that his last five or six pass attempts were during the last two minutes of heavy rain in which only Noah in the shelter of his Arc could have completed a pass. Through all that, the Patriots lost, scoring only 6 points.

The good news? The Pats’ defense surrendered just 13 points despite the Bengals’ offense holding the ball for the majority of the game. Vince Wilfork’s absence was certainly felt given the 162 yards the Patriots gave up on the ground, but for the most part they looked solid. Aqib Talib and company limited AJ Green about as well as is possible to limit the league’s second best receiver. The bad news on the defensive front was the injury to Tommy Kelly. One week after losing Wilfork, Kelly went down with an apparent knee injury, returned for a few plays, then missed the rest of the game. So now the Patriots are down to just two rookie defensive tackles.

So here’s what the 2013 Patriots look like: the fourth best defense in the league and the 17th ranked offense. Doesn’t quite seem right, does it? The Patriots then took their battered squad back to Foxborough to take on the undefeated Saints. Though Drew Brees and Sean Payton had the offense running as efficiently as ever, it has been the Saints’ defense stealing the headlines. After giving up a record worst 7,041 yards on defense last year, the Saints hired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (Rex’s heftier, longer-haired clone) to solve their problems. And he did exactly that. The Saints’ aggressive style of defense has thrown off opponents week after week, and the Saints rolled to a 5-0 start to the season.

Given the Pats’ struggles on offense against the Bengals and the Saints’ having the best offense they faced all season, this was a daunting matchup. However, the Patriots were unfazed as always and Belichick & Co. came up with a masterful game plan. The Pats dominated the first half, taking a 17-7 lead into the break. The defense was unbreakable and the offense, led by Stevan Ridley’s best performance of the season, was methodical. The Saints then battled back in the second half scoring 10 points on their first two possessions and tying the game at 17.

Fast-forward to 3 minutes left in the game and the Patriots find themselves down 1 with the ball. After turning it over on downs on their own 24-yard line the defense held the Saints and forced a field goal. Now there’s 2:24 on the clock and Brady throws a horrendous deep ball intended for Edelman that is easily intercepted. Game over, right? Wrong. The defense stood tall again, used their final timeout and the two-minute warning to stop the clock, and forced the Saints to punt with 1:13 left in the game. Then we all got to see something we seemingly haven’t seen in a long time: Vintage Brady.

With no timeouts, Brady drove the offense down the field with mechanical precision, completing passes to Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson and Austin Collie. That set the Pats up on the 17-yard line with 10 seconds on the clock. Brady took the snap, found Kenbrell Thompkins in man coverage, and floated one of the best throws of his career just over the defender and into the waiting hands of Thompkins. If you missed it, I’m sorry, because there’s no way I can put into words what a beautiful pass it was. Let’s just say it’s definitely going to make his highlight reel.

There were a few takeaways from this game, not the least of which was Tom Brady’s performance. We’ve come to expect excellence from him, of course, but there has been one situation in which he has constantly struggled throughout his career: when he’s being hit consistently. Take last week’s Bengals game or the 2008 Super bowl as examples. The formula for opposing defenses has been to hit Tom Brady, and it has generally worked when executed. However, this Sunday, Brady was sacked 5 times, hit twice more, and generally under pressure for the entire game. Yet he managed to overcome the pressure and work the offense in the mechanical way we’ve grown so fond of. It’s hard to imagine that Brady is still getting better at the age of 36, but that kind of toughness and resiliency is not something he is known for.

There was, however, a lot of bad that came out of this dramatic victory: injuries. Aqib Talib pulled up limping in the third quarter with a hip flexor injury, and did not return. Dan Connolly suffered a head injury in first half, and did not return. Danny Amendola was knocked unconscious in an incidental, yet highly unfortunate, helmet-to-helmet hit. Jerod Mayo left the fourth quarter with an apparent shoulder injury, and later left the stadium in a sling. He underwent surgery for a torn pectoral muscle on Tuesday and will likely miss the rest of the season. We will now see what Dont’a Hightower and rookie Jamie Collins are truly made of.

What do all these injuries mean for the Patriots? Nothing good. All four guys are starters and key contributors to the Patriots. Connolly abandons what is already a leaky offensive line. Danny Amendola has just recovered from a groin injury and is the Patriots’ most talented receiver. Aqib Talib has simply been the league’s best cornerback this season, shutting down the other team’s best receiver week after week including holding the league’s leading pass catcher, Jimmy Graham, to 0 catches on multiple targets on Sunday for the first time in Graham’s career.  Lastly, Jerod Mayo is the Patriots’ defensive leader; he wears the microphone and calls the plays in the huddle. He’s led the team in tackles every year since he started playing, and ranks seventh in the league in tackles this season.  If any of rest of these guys miss significant time, like Mayo and Wilfork, the Patriots could be in big trouble.

That being said, the Pats have shown incredible resiliency this season and have seemed able to endure anything. However, a team can only sustain so many injuries to their top players before they collapse. Wilfork, Mayo and Talib are the teams best and hardest to replace defensive players. Hopefully the Pats won’t have to replace Talib like they will Wilfork and Mayo, but hip flexors can sideline players for a long time. The Patriots will take their banged up squad to New York this weekend to play a crucial divisional matchup with the Jets. Let’s all hope that these injuries aren’t severe and that the Pats can take a commanding lead in the division by winning on Sunday.

A Perfect* First Quarter of the Season

Their record says “perfect.” Their play says “anything but.” The Patriots are 4-0, on top in the AFC East and tied for the best record in the league. They came together for a great team win in Atlanta on Sunday Night Football, but the win may have cost them dearly. Vince Wilfork tore his Achilles in the 1st quarter, and is now out for the rest of season. In Wilfork’s 9-year career, he has missed a total of 6 games due to injury. He’s been the biggest part of the Patriots’ run defense, both literally and figuratively, for all nine of those years. It’s really hard to speculate how the Patriots’ will compensate for his absence, simply because he’s always been there.

Normally, I’d shrug a defensive injury off and say, “now Brady and the offense will just have to score 6 touchdowns, instead of five.” But that’s not the reality of the 2013 Patriots. Their defense was the most promising part of this team, anchored by big Vince with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich rushing the passer and Aqib Talib hauling in interceptions (4 of ‘em already). But now the anchor is gone. There will be no more double teams required to hold the big nose tackle, thus freeing up offensive linemen to block the likes of Jones and Ninkovich. When those guys aren’t getting to the passer, he isn’t pressured to make bad throws for Talib to grab. You see what I’m driving at here? Everything started and ended with Vince Wilfork on this defense, and now he’s gone.

Lots of critics were talking about how Vince wasn’t playing his best this year, and they were right, but that doesn’t diminish his impact. Offenses have to game plan for Wilfork. Just his presence on the field draws double-teams and stops the other team from even considering a run up the middle. All of that is gone for the rest of the season, and it is unclear who will step up to fill the enormous hole Wilfork left on the defense. Boy, this is starting to get negative, isn’t it?

On the bright side, the Pats are 4-0. They haven’t lost yet this season, and they’ve played at least one tough opponent. They beat the Falcons without Wilfork for majority of the game. In fact, if you subtract the final six minutes of the game, they played a near perfect game. Of course, I’m not going to subtract those minutes, because they are the most important, and the Patriots almost collapsed in historic fashion. But they didn’t. Talib made a great play on Roddy White in the end zone on 4th down and the Patriots left Georgia with a perfect record in September. So we move on.

This week the Pats play the least consistent team in the league so far: the Cincinnati Bengals. I say that because the Bengals have both beaten the Packers, and lost to the Browns in consecutive weeks. Just last week they had people worried that they were going to be a contender in the AFC, but then they went on and lost to the Browns. Now they’re just Cincinnati again. What that means is a consistently solid defense and a painfully average offense. Their defense is nothing to fear, but it certainly not one to take lightly.

Their defense is built around Geno Atkins, much in the same way the Pats revolved around Wilfork. Terence Newman and Leon Hall combine to make a pretty strong pair of cornerbacks, and James Harrison (yes, formerly Pittsburgh’s James Harrison) is always a threat to get after the passer. All in all they’re very solid and will make it difficult for Brady and the gang to move the football. That being said, they certainly aren’t a juggernaut on defense. It will take a balanced attack between run and pass from the Patriots if they want to score points. That effort will be aided by the signing of former Colts’ wide out, Austin Collie. Now Collie was signed on Thursday, so I’m not sure how much actual time he’ll get on Sunday, but in the long term he provides a sure set of hands and a veteran presence. That is, of course, if he can stay on the field despite his injury-riddled past.

Defensively the Patriots have one job: A.J. Green. Green is the league’s second best receiver in my mind (behind Calvin Johnson, of course), and is the focal point of the Bengals offense. He is almost impossible to shut down, so the Patriots will have to limit his targets. He will undoubtedly be shadowed by Talib who has done a great job this season taking away the other team’s best option. Green will be his toughest test of the season. If the Patriots can do to Green what they did to Julio Jones last week (limit him significantly), they won’t have any trouble stopping the Bengals.

Up front, in the absence of Vince Wilfork, I expect to see something from Bill Belichick that we haven’t seen in a long time: trickery. The last time Wilfork missed any time the Patriots had all of their defensive linemen and linebackers standing up, wandering around and not giving away their rushing lanes. Joe Vellano did a serviceable job in Wilfork’s place on Sunday night, but I somehow doubt Belichick and Matt Patricia will simply line him up in Wilfork’s place and ask him to fill the role. I’m betting they have something a little more tricky up their sleeves.

My Prediction: This team lost to the Browns, you guys. Sure the Browns actually have the 3rd ranked defense in the league, but the Bengals surrendered 17 points to Brian Hoyer. If the Browns can put up 17, the Pats can surely put up 30, right? If the Packer’s defense surrendered 34 to them, the Patriots’ D can certainly hold them to 21, right? I got the Pats: 31-21.