On Sunday at 6:40pm, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts will trot on to the field at Gillette Stadium to take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots with a spot in Super Bowl XLIX on the line. It will be the AFC’s best quarterback over the past decade and a half facing off against the guy who is likely to be the AFC’s best quarterback for the next decade. The legend, Brady, versus the whiz kid, Luck. It will be a matchup between the quiet and unemotional mastermind that is Bill Belichick versus the charismatic, open book that is Chuck Pagano.
Both teams earned their spots in the championship game through very different, and somewhat surprising, results. The Colts thoroughly dominated the Denver Broncos by holding Peyton Manning’s offense to just one touchdown, winning by a final score of 24-13 in a game that never felt that close. The Patriots, on the other hand, fought back from a 14-0 first quarter deficit, and a 28-14 third quarter deficit, to win 35-31 in an absolute thriller over the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts’ defense looked positively stifling (though a lot of that was due to Peyton Manning’s severe case of noodle-arm) while the Patriots’ defense showed a striking resemblance to Swiss cheese.
I can’t overstate how bad New England’s defense looked on Saturday. They were consistently gashed up the middle in the running game and failed in coverage in almost every play in the first half. They gave up a total of 428 yards and 4 touchdowns, and without two terrible floaters from Flacco that turned into easy interceptions, it could have been much worse. Normally I give credit to a defense for forcing turnovers, but there is a big difference between a takeaway and a giveaway. Joe Flacco gift-wrapped those two interceptions. However, I have to give credit where credit is due; Gary Kubiak put together a brilliant offensive game plan for the Ravens.
Baltimore led the league in rushing attempts outside the tackles, with Justin Forsett taking the ball outside on over 70% of his carries. Against New England, however, they pounded the ball straight up the middle, knowing that the Patriots would be paying special attention to winning the edge battles, which they did for the most part. Kubiak also knew that Belichick often has his inside linebackers, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower, bump the other team’s tight end when he is running a shallow crossing route. Kubiak used that to his advantage, and often swung a back into the flat while his tight end, Owen Daniels, ran a shallow cross. Flacco would stare down Daniels until Collins or Hightower came down to bump him, then would throw to the flat, leaving the Patriots’ linebackers late in coverage. That exact play was the reason Forsett was so open on his touchdown reception, and the reason that fullback Kyle Juszczyk caught four passes for 29 yards, two for first downs. Little adjustments like that were what helped the Ravens move the ball so well, but the Patriots have to do a better job of making in-game adjustments.
Offensively, the Patriots were better. Despite a dismal game on the ground (14 yards on seven carries by running backs), they moved the ball well through the air, thanks to some trickery and a brilliant performance from Brady. I won’t say too much about the trickery, other than Julian Edelman’s bomb to Danny Amendola was the coolest play I’ve seen since 2001 when David Patton and Troy Brown pulled off the same stunt. The eligible-ineligible receiver formation that Jon Harbaugh felt the need to complain about was the definition of a “Belichickism.” The formation was deceitful, yes, but entirely legal. While it will probably be reviewed and outlawed in the offseason by the NFL, it was classic Belichick. He finds rules he can exploit, and takes advantage of them. It was nothing more than a legal formation that no one had thought to try in an up-tempo offense before. That’s what Belichick does.
Aside from all the trickery, this game was one of Brady’s finest playoff performances in recent memory. He was 33 of 50 for 367 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. While the interception was ugly, the rest of the game was brilliant. It becomes far more difficult to throw the ball when the other team virtually knows that you’re going to pass. Given that the Patriots didn’t hand the ball off a single time in the second half, the Ravens knew what was coming. It didn’t matter, however, as Brady repeatedly carved up the Ravens’ secondary. His touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell was one of the prettiest passes of his entire career, dropping it right in LaFell’s breadbasket, where he hardly even needed to look to catch it.
The Colts really couldn’t be a more different opponent than the Baltimore Ravens. While Baltimore was a run heavy team, the Colts hardly run the ball, but not by choice. They’ve struggled in the ground game for quite some time now, and losing Ahmad Bradshaw to a season-ending injury has left Dan Herron as their primary tailback. He is a decent back, but not one that strikes any sort of fear in a defense, and Indianapolis simply doesn’t block in the running game very well. Instead, the Colts’ offense lives and dies with the play of Andrew Luck. He ranked third in the league in passing attempts, but if you factor in his scrambles, nobody in the league dropped back to pass more than Luck.
His weapons through the air are fairly limited. They’re headlined by T.Y. Hilton, a young receiver who really emerged as a top-tier, speedy NFL pass catcher this season. The truly talented receivers end there, however. Reggie Wayne was once a stud, but his age has caught up to him. Rookie Donte Moncrief has also emerged as a speedy deep threat, but will pose no issues for the Patriots’ secondary. The last time these two teams played, tight end Coby Fleener had one of the best games of his career, and will likely be a go-to guy for Luck once again. If Revis can shut down Hilton, however, the Colts will struggle to score enough points to beat the Patriots. It will also be important to get pressure on Luck to disrupt his timing. Chandler Jones was the most disappointing Patriot last week, as he was completely invisible working against an undrafted rookie. He will need to step up his game and get after Luck. Also, expect to see Hightower and Collins to come on a handful of A-Gap (the middle of the line) blitzes in Luck’s face.
Defensively, the Ravens boasted a mean front seven and a very vulnerable secondary. The Colts are the opposite. The strength of their team is on the back end, and their defensive line leaves a lot to be desired. In the past two games against the Colts, the Patriots have racked up a combined 480 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns. Those numbers are astronomical for a two-game stretch, and there’s no reason to think that the Patriots won’t attack them on the ground again. Of course, you’d have to assume the Colts would be ready for that approach, but they’ve shown no ability to stop the Patriots’ running game in the past, even when they’ve known it was coming. Brady should also have no trouble finding Rob Gronkowski, as the Colts have no viable option to cover him. As long as Brady is careful when throwing in the direction of Vontae Davis, the Patriots should not have any trouble moving the ball against this Colts defense.
My Prediction: To be honest there’s nothing about this game on paper that worries me. While the Colts’ defense did look like it buckled down against the Broncos last weekend, they certainly weren’t facing a Peyton Manning that was firing on all cylinders. Tom Brady is. While Luck will make some jaw-dropping throws to be sure, he’s also almost guaranteed to turn the ball over once or twice. The only way I see the Colts stealing this game is the simple fact that nobody believes in them, and they have absolutely nothing to lose. They might as well throw everything they’ve got at the Patriots and see if they can win a wild one on some crazy bounces and timely turnovers. I don’t see it happening. The Colts will be a very good team for a very long time with Andrew Luck at the helm, but this is still Brady’s time. I’ve got the Patriots hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy In Gillette, this time by a score of 38-24.
Conrad's Corner Sports 