On Sunday the New England Patriots hosted the Oakland Raiders in Foxboro for their home opener. The team had struggled through their first two games, losing in Miami before a strong defensive effort lifted them over the Vikings in Minnesota. After the Vikings game, Tom Brady was visibly upset with the way his offense had played, and rightfully so. In the week leading up to the Oakland game, the players and coaches assured us that they were practicing better, and that the offense was starting to come together. The timing couldn’t have been better because the Raiders were allowing 200 yards rushing per game and didn’t have the secondary to cover all of Brady’s weapons. This game was such a mismatch that I predicted the Pats to score 41 points. What I forgot was how atrocious this team’s offensive line is.
Before I get in to just how bad this offensive line is, I would like to point out that the Pats did beat the Raiders by a score of 16-9. However, they needed a holding penalty to negate a potential game-tying touchdown and an interception on a deflected ball inside their own 10 with less than a minute to go to eek this one out. That’s not exactly the way a supposed Super Bowl Contender should play in their home opener against the Oakland Raiders.
Now, about that offensive line. Brady was sacked twice on Sunday and hit six other times, often quite violently. The worst part was that only one of those hits came as the result of a blitz. In fact, five of the six sacks the O-Line has allowed have come against just three or four pass rushers. That means they out number the pass rushers and are still getting gashed. ProFootballFocus.com ranks every offensive lineman by position in the league and this is what they found: Of 68 tackles that have played at least one snap this season, Sebastian Vollmer ranks 25th and Nate Solder ranks 65th. Among 70 guards, Marcus Cannon ranks 52nd and Jordan Devey comes in at 68th. Dan Connolly ranks 37th of 46 centers. That leaves Vollmer as the only guy in the top half of the players at his position and Devey and Solder rank third to last at their positions (Side note: When broken into rankings for just pass blocking, Vollmer falls out of the top half). It doesn’t get much worse than that for a five-man unit.
Brady is 37 years old and certainly not getting any younger. He’s about as elusive as a sloth at this point and needs protection around him. He won’t be able to stay upright if guys like Justin Tuck keep blowing by Solder like a turnstile and drilling him. Some have been saying, “as long as the Patriots keep winning, the O-Line will figure it out eventually.” However, I don’t think Brady has “eventually” in him before the amount of hits he’s taking cost him an injury. When you have an aging superstar at quarterback, you’re supposed to protect him, not get him killed.
As easy as it is to blame Bill Belichick for trading Logan Mankins (and I do), Mankins isn’t coming back. So how do the Pats fix this? They started on Sunday by benching Devey, moving Connolly to guard and putting rookie Brian Stork in at center. Stork looked good there for the remainder of the game, so I’d expect him to stay at center this week. That only solves two positions though, and, as I pointed out above, all five guys have been awful. For the other three guys, it’s a matter of stepping up their game. Solder and Vollmer are better than they’ve played this season, and we know that from past experience. Neither are old enough to be over the hill, so they just need to figure it out. If they don’t, however, the Pats are in a whole lot of trouble.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Arrowhead Stadium is always loud, but you can bet that the primetime crowd will be as raucous as ever. The noise makes running the up-tempo offense a lot more difficult because communication at the line of scrimmage has to be done with hand signals. Though the Chiefs aren’t a juggernaut, they’re significantly better than the Vikings and Raiders and handed a beat down to the Dolphins last week, so they’re still the best opponent the Pats have faced thus far in the season.
Offensively, they rely heavily on the run game. Usually the grunt work goes to Jamaal Charles, but he is still recovering from a high ankle sprain and is questionable for Monday night’s game, though most believe he’ll be in the lineup. If he can’t go, they’ll give the ball to Knile Davis, his backup, who has racked up a respectable 214 yards and three touchdowns on 55 carries in Charles’ absence this season. Regardless of who the running back is, the Chiefs will test the Pats’ run defense that looked so bad in week one.
They don’t have too many weapons in the passing game and shouldn’t be too much of a test for the Patriots’ secondary. However, Alex Smith is a good game manager and doesn’t often turn the ball over, so interceptions will be hard to come by. The good thing about playing against Smith is that the Patriots defense can be as aggressive as they want, because he almost never takes shots down the field. He sticks to handing the ball off and making the safe throws.
Defensively the Chiefs boast a great defensive line that will test the Patriots porous offensive line yet again. Dontari Poe is one of the best defensive tackles in the league at getting after the quarterback. The scariest matchup, however, is Tamba Hali going against Solder. Hali has two sacks already this season and is an extremely dangerous edge rusher. Belichick will have to think about giving Solder help with tight ends and running backs, because if he can’t stop Tuck on his own, he’ll get shredded by Hali. Eric Berry at safety and Sean Smith at cornerback make for a solid secondary for the Chiefs as well, but nothing else will matter for the offense if the line can’t hold.
My Prediction: If the Patriots are going to win this game, they’ll have to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. If they can slow down the Chiefs running game and get a lead, Alex Smith will be forced to throw the ball more than he likes to, which would likely lead to mistakes. This matchup makes me nervous not just because the offensive line could cost them the game (they definitely could) but also because I’m not sold on the Patriots defense. The Raiders moved the ball a little too easily last week and Smith and Charles/Davis are a lot better than Derek Carr and Darren McFadden. Still, I think the Patriots are a more talented team and I have hope that Stork and Connolly can sure up the interior of the line a little bit. I’ll take the Pats in a close one, 23-21. Though I wouldn’t be shocked if they lost by a similar score.
Conrad's Corner Sports 